Player for player, Tennessee might have the more talented team. But Vols coach Rick Barnes has reached the Final Four just once in his 38 seasons as a Division I head coach despite leading numerous ultra-talented clubs. We'll side with a Houston led by Kelvin Sampson, who has been to the Elite Eight twice and a Final Four over the past five seasons, to use its signature stifling defense to move on.

The public is all over Tennessee in this matchup. The Cougars lead the nation in three-point percentage, but Tennessee has been defending the perimeter very well. The Volunteers are just as efficient defensively as Houston, but they face the number one scoring defense in the country. The Cougars are able to create more turnovers and defend the rim better than Tennessee, which is where the Volunteers play their game. This Houston team is their best offensive team they’ve had which gives them their best chance to make it to the Final Four.

Tennessee has never made it to the Final Four... time for that to change. Last year's trip to the Elite 8 matched as close as UT has ever gotten, but was running into Purdue and Zach Edey in the Elite 8. The Cougars don't have that sort of component, and considering their discomfort at Lucas Oil vs. Purdue on Friday, how they fare vs. a more-uncompromising UT remains to be seen. The Vols put the clamps on Kentucky in Friday's 78-65 cruise, and the savvy Ziegler-Lanier pairing in the backcourt isn't likely to be fazed by the Cougs after dealing with SEC heavyweights all season. Is this the year for Rick Barnes to get to the Final Four? Play Tennessee (NCAA at Indianapolis).

Houston hardly looked comfy with the depth perception at Lucas Oil on Friday, as shooting suffered and caused the Cougs to kick away a 10-point lead before a Milos Uzan bucket in the last second saved the Purdue win. UH still has the nation's best scoring defense (59 ppg) and slowing down Purdue's collection of bombardiers on Friday. Tennessee doesn't have shooters the caliber of Braden Smith or Fletcher Loyer so don't expect the Vols to bomb at will on Sunday. Tennessee, however, plays rugged defense, too, and took Kentucky out of its offense on Friday. UH needs to executes a lot better than it did vs. Purdue if it wants to solve this Rick Barnes defense. Play Tennessee-Houston Under (NCAA at Indianapolis).

Defense is going to be on display with Tennessee and Houston clashing with the total at 123.5. Whoever has that best defense on display Sunday will earn a trip to the Final Four, and based on the season full of results, I have to lean toward Houston, who is 33-4 and went 10-0 on the road. The road record is impressive to me. It shows no fear and no emotion in the way of their mission. Houston has the better defense allowing 38.4% shooting, number one in the nation allowing 19.7 field goals per game, and being tops in the nation allowing 58.5 points scored per game. Coach Kelvin Sampson breeds defense every season into the team culture. Houston covers.

I have Houston playing for the natty (losing to Florida), so not about to bail on the Cougars now. What a fabulous play design by Kelvin Sampson on that last-second inbounds play to beat Purdue in the Sweet 16. Simple yet brilliant. This Elite Eight matchup from Indy is going to be an utter rock fight and first one to 50 points might win. UT is an excellent defensive team (KenPom No. 3 nationally), but UH (No. 1) has no peer among major college teams in that regard. The last time the Cougars lost a game, the Chiefs were still reigning Super Bowl champions and my waistline an inch smaller (missus has been taking cooking classes).

Betting underdogs in this tournament is a good way to go broke but 4.5 feels like a lot here. Get ready for a bloodbath. I bet Tennessee +390 to make the Final Four, anticipating this matchup. The Vols are one of the few teams in the country that can match Houston’s physicality. In a game this tight, we try to find any slight advantage to give us a betting edge. How the officials call the game will be key. Neither team gets the free throw line a ton, although Houston fouls a lot more than Tennessee on paper. If the refs have a quick whistle, that should benefit the Vols. In a dogfight, I'll take the 4.5 points.