The Crimson Tide are unlikely to duplicate their effort in their Sweet 16 blowout of BYU that included hitting 25-51 from 3-point range. Although the nation's top-scoring team can win a shootout with anyone, the equally explosive Blue Devils should welcome this challenge and pull away on their way to the Final Four.

Duke has been outrageous offensively of late but man 92 points in an Elite Eight game. What if Cooper Flagg gets two early fouls? Would imagine the Blue Devils try and slow the pace a little because the Tide 100 percent want to get into a track meet, but Duke is as good offensively. We likely need just one five-minute bad shooting stretch from the Dukies to cash barring overtime. I actually haven't been looking at models for a handful of weeks and have been doing vastly better since rather ironically (glad my gut is good for something), but I'm not a huge totals guy so I did check on this and ours has Duke at 85. KenPom has 86 and Massey 83.

There hasn't been such a long-range shooting display like Bama's on Thursday vs. BYU since Loyola-Marymount's memorable 1990 run to the Elite 8, when Paul Westhead's Lions hit for 21 triples in the second round vs. Michigan. The Tide had broken that LMU record for most 3s in a game with seven minutes still to play at the Rock! While BYU conducted a suicidal resolve by trying to run with the Tide and its nation's-best 91.4 ppg offense, Jon Scheyer might not have the same approach on Saturday, though the Blue Devils and their near 84 ppg offense never shy from a shootout, either. Still, it's not hard to get sucked in by the racehorse style that Bama prefers. Play Alabama-Duke Over (NCAA at Newark)

No need to amplify on Duke and all-everything 6-9 frosh Cooper Flagg, who put 30 on Arizona Thursday night. But before coronating the Blue Devils, note their perimeter defense was shot full of holes by Arizona's Caleb Love, who scored 35, and Duke couldn't shake the dogged Wildcats down the stretch. gg). Experience, also gained from a Final Four trip last spring, and excess firepower are great advantages for any underdog like Bama. If the 3s are falling anywhere near as they did on Thursday (when hitting 25 of 51--sheesh!--vs BYU), the Tide, after surviving the rugged SEC, can get back to another Final Four. Play Alabama (NCAA at Newark)

This total is a hair below the sky-high one for Alabama-BYU. Makes no sense. The difference between these scenarios is, Duke plays dogged defense, unlike the Cougars. The Blue Devils rank fifth in KenPom for defensive efficiency. Their games on average contain the 274th most possessions in Division I, lower than nearly three-fourths of all teams. The Devils should not allow Mark Sears to go off as he did Thursday, and their tree-tall front line should keep the Crimson Tide from scoring much in the paint.

In my eyes, Duke is the best team in the field. That said, this is a big number to lay against a team that can score like the Tide. If Alabama continues to shoot well, this game will come down to the final two minutes. I fully expect Duke to win, but I'm taking the points and like Bama to cover.

It's Duke's highest total yet, but that's what happens when you play Alabama in do or die game. Both teams can score at will and the Tide play no D. Duke is without a top rebounder and defender and has been a straight over team with Cooper Flagg healthy - 9-1 over last 10 with Flagg fully available and 12-3 over in last 15. Either team scoring 85+ is not out of character. Bama is 9-4 over last 13 games and 8-3 over on the season when total is 173+. The Tide is 13-7-1 over with equal rest and 6-3 over in neutral settings. Perhaps this drops more but as of now things tipping back up towards 174. Duke could drop 100 again.