I think this will be a gritty bruising defensive game with both sides relying on their defenses as the clock runs. The Aztecs will slow the game down on each possession in any situation. That’s been what they've done to just about every game they’ve played since early February. SDSU just had a 12-game Under streak snapped in its last game but is now 14-2 to the Under in the last 16 games. Both teams are holding opponents to 35% shooting or less during the NCAA Tournament. I’m on the Under.

Connecticut is 15-1 ATS in non-conference games and 9-1 ATS in neutral-court matchups. The Huskies started the season 14-0 and are looking to prove they are the best tonight. In five tournament games, the Huskies have elevated their game on both ends of the court, making 49.5% of their shots while opponents are shooting just 34%. But San Diego State has elevated its defense, as well, allowing 35% shooting in the tournament. The Aztecs don’t rattle easily, slow the pace and stay in games. They might just win here. I took the points with San Diego State.

UConn is 16-0 against nonconference opponents this year because none of them have been able to score on the Huskies. UConn has a defensive efficiency of 85.6 in noncon games compared to 94.8 in Big East games (also very good!). San Diego State has been elite defensively all season too, and slows games down. We saw a similar matchup in the tournament when UConn faced Saint Mary's. The final score in that game was 70-55, and UConn had to hit 10 threes (10/22) to reach 70.

This dipped to 7 temporarily at Caesars and that might matter. That last thing I want as a fan tonight is a blowout, but as bad as San Diego State can be at shooting the ball, it might take 1985 Villanova-esque good fortune to stay close here. Gonzaga and Miami were great offensive teams and neither even scored 60 points against UConn. In the tournament, the Huskies hold a plus-20.6 points per game advantage over opponents and a plus-10.8 rebounding advantage per game.

UConn's march to a 5th title in school history hasn't been overly challenging from a seed perspective: 13-5-8-3-5. But the Huskies have been so dominant in every game that their win over Miami on Saturday was by the closest margin yet, 13 points. San Diego State has been magical in the tournament, including two very lucky / fortunate finishes against Creighton and Florida Atlantic. The buck stops here for the Aztecs though. Not only do I think the Huskies win and cover, I would even play this line up to 9.5 and get better than even money odds (such as +110) for another UConn crushing victory.

UConn began the season as the best team in the country and looks to end it in the same fashion. Throughout the NCAA tournament they've faced teams of many different styles...and won them all by double-digits. Their defense has been even better than advertised, they've owned the rebound and free throw metrics plus an offense that is putting up nearly 80 points per game with relative ease. Love everything about San Diego State and the season they've had but honestly what are we really doing here. UConn has barely even been forced to play the second half of games since the bracket was announced. The Aztecs miracle came one game too early and that bell doesn't ring twice. Start clearing space for a new banner in Storrs.

I think we are about to see UConn match the runs of 2018 Villanova, 2009 North Carolina, 2001 Duke and 2000 Michigan State in winning the national championship with six double-digit tournament wins. The power ratings, the market and the models can't keep up with how much better the Huskies are playing than their season-long numbers, and even those rank among the best in the country. It's not UConn beating teams by an average of 22.6 in this tournament, but the Huskies have been at least 9 points clear of the spread as well in all five wins.

Early money poured in on the Huskies for good reason. The nation's most complete team, UConn has won its five NCAA Tournament games by an average of 20.6 points and has beaten every non-conference foe by double digits. With their elite defense and size, the Aztecs will keep it interesting for a while. But ultimately the Huskies have more offensive weapons -- and nearly as strong a defense -- and should pull away. San Diego State used 12 offensive rebounds to key its dramatic comeback win over Florida Atlantic. The Aztecs will be hard-pressed to repeat that versus a UConn team that ranks 20th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.