Have gone back-and-forth on this but with three experts on North Texas, that made my pick easy to avoid the SL Curse. It's the first true road game for North Texas in about a month, and that matters. So perhaps does the distraction of Coach Grant McCasland reportedly on his way to Texas Tech whenever the Mean Green's season ends. UNT is excellent but hasn't played a power conference school this season and the closest it came was a blowout loss to Saint Mary's. Led by 7-footer Moussa Cisse, the Cowboys rank first in the Big 12 and 20th nationally in blocks, averaging 4.9 per game. The Pokes will have a massive size advantage with UNT big man Abou Ousmane out a second straight game due to personal reasons.

Oklahoma State has failed to cover five straight home games, four versus Big 12 foes and then Eastern Washington in the NIT. Though this number has fallen, I'll still back the Mean Green thanks to their elite defense, which has allowed an average of 54 points through two NIT games. This is going to be a tight, low-scoring game, with North Texas' ability to force turnovers the deciding factor. Take the points.

This play caught my eye last night after a steam move on North Texas +5. It's still a two-possession game at +3.5, and the line is +4 at some places, so keep an eye on this one as we get closer to tip. In a Top 25 defensive battle, this will come down to which offense we trust more. The metrics point to the Mean Green. North Texas is a high-volume 3-point shooting team, making 36.4% of its shots. Meanwhile, OK State is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. Both teams are average at drawing fouls, but North Texas (76.2 FT%) is better than the Pokes (69.8 FT%) from the charity stripe, which will matter in this physical matchup.

Oklahoma State was having an NCAA Tournament-worthy season, and then Feb. 14 happened -- a loss to Kansas that started a five-game losing streak. OSU has the home edge, but I don’t think that matters much to North Texas, which won 28 games this season with an amazing brand of defense. The Mean Green allowed just 55 PPG all season. They allowed 34% shooting over their last five games. North Texas has 14 road wins. Oklahoma State has won 13 at home. I’m on North Texas to cover.

Note: I'm playing any remaining NIT games at 0.5u instead of 1u. My simulations make the number 118.4 in this matchup between two teams that are better defensively than offensively. North Texas plays great defense and that has continued in the NIT where they've held both opponents to 55 or fewer points. The Mean Green love to play a very slow game where they rank outside the top 350 in pace of play. This should be a physical defensive battle that stays under. I'm on the u124 for 0.5u