No doubt the best FAU team ever but do we really know how good? While the Owls dominated in Conference USA, their non-conference schedule was weak with the two notable games a loss to Ole Miss, which was terrible in the SEC this year (yet beat FAU by 13), and close win over Florida, which was decent when healthy. When Memphis is on, it can beat anyone -- as shown by the AAC Tournament title game vs. Houston. The Tigers' Kendric Davis is a stud and could break the school's single-season points record with a huge game tonight. The SL Model has FAU winning, but Sagarin, Massey and ESPN BPI have Memphis, which has won at least one game in each of its last three NCAA Tournament trips. This could be the beginning of a hoops rivalry with FAU headed to the AAC next season.

Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May brought back four starters and four key reserves from last season's 19-15 squad and parlayed it into a 31-3 season, a Conference USA championship and an NCAA Tournament berth. The Owls also went 21-11 against the spread while averaging a 78-65 score. But I’m on Memphis, which went 13-6 on the road and 12-6 ATS. The Tigers have put it all together, going 9-2 in their last 11 contests.

8-9 games are always a good time, and more often than not the teams are pretty evenly matched. But it's hard to deny the team here that's only lost three times -- especially when that team is the underdog. FAU is winning in 63% of my model's simulations, which makes this moneyline an excellent value play. FAU to win.

It's been an impressive run for FAU in Conference USA, but the level of competition rises quite significantly when they face an emerging Memphis team who has won nine of 11 games, with both losses coming to No. 1 seed Houston (they also have a win against Houston without Marcus Sasser). Not only has Memphis handled AAC competition well, but the Tigers have also done well against some very good out non-conference opponents and FAU simply hasn't had even close to the same level of competition. Memphis is being underestimated and the Tigers have the momentum and the senior leadership to cover this short number.

Memphis has dropped two games in the past 11 outright. The first one was against Houston. The other was against . . . Houston. When a blazing streak is prevented by the NCAA's No. 1 overall seed, that says volumes about the Tigers. While Florida Atlantic is a sexy pick with 31 straight-up wins, the Owls were last in the Big Dance 21 years ago. The Tigers unleash a scoring machine, Kendric Davis, who gives them a go-to guy in the clutch. Oh, their most recent victory was against . . . Houston.

The wrong team is favored here. FAU went 31-3 and easily won Conference USA's regular season and conference tournament titles. They have seven players who average 20 or more minutes and are a well-disciplined team. Their NET Ranking is 13th. Memphis went 26-8 and avenged their two losses to Houston in the American Conference Championship Game, though to be fair, the Cougars were without their best player, Marcus Sasser in the third matchup. The NET Rankings have Memphis 10 spots below FAU and that's after moving up six positions post-AAC Tournament. In what I expect to be a close game throughout, I think the Owls advance.