This is going to be a battle with strengths vs. strengths featuring Houston’s No. 1 defense allowing only 37.3 percent shooting facing Baylor’s No. 1 ranked 3-point shooting team (41.1 percent). How do you beat Houston’s tough defense and keep the Cougars off the boards? You shoot over it with 3-point shots and make them. Baylor has done that better than any team this season. Baylor to cover.

Baylor has shown signs of deteriorating play down the stretch of the Big 12 season and in the NCAA Tournament, lacking the ability to play for 40 minutes. Also, their isolation halfcourt sets will play into the hands of the Cougars. Take the points.

First game of Final Four on Saturday and shown on CBS. I was hoping this might drop to Baylor -4.5, but that's not going to happen with heavy action on the Bears. Houston is no doubt a good team but also is the first school to beat solely double-digit seeds on the way to the Final Four -- and UH didn't look great in a couple of those. The Cougars have faced just one AP Top 25 team (when they played) all season and that was way back on Nov. 29. Baylor has won 22 straight non-conference games by an average margin of 21.7 points. This won't be that big of a blowout, but the Bears winning by low double digits wouldn't surprise.

To keep up with Baylor, the Cougars will need a big night from leading scorer Quentin Grimes. I'm betting against that happening and expecting Davion Mitchell, the Big 12's Defensive Player of the Year, to harass Grimes into a bad night like he did versus Moses Moody. Arkansas' star was held to 2-of-10 shooting with three turnovers. Houston's primary advantage will be on the offensive glass, but I don't think the Bears are as vulnerable there as some suggest. Baylor is back to the form it showed in the first half of the season, before the team's three-week hiatus. Lay the points.

Houston's path to the Final Four has come with four wins against double-digit seeds, and the Cougars narrowly squeezed by Rutgers and Oregon State. Even so, their 57.6 ppg scoring defense (No. 2 nationally) is the most lethal weapon either side brings to this contest. They should slow down the powerful offense of Baylor (83 ppg) and force the Bears out of their comfort zone and into a half-court grinder. The slower tempo should bring more value to the points and, if the Cougars can avoid the long offensive droughts that have threatened a couple games, they could be headed to the national title game.