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Understanding Public and Money
McDavid is starting to look healthier and more like the player he was during last year's playoffs. With the Oilers desperate for a win, I expect the three-time Hart Trophy winner to come out firing.
The Oilers have defeated the Kings in the first round each of the last three years, and need a win here to avoid falling into a 0-3 series hole. I expect an increased sense of urgency from Edmonton behind strong performances from McDavid and Draisaitl.
Edmonton is hoping a change of scenery brings different results. Los Angeles took the first two games at home by scoring 12 goals. The Kings have won four straight in the series, outscoring the Oilers 20-7. One bright spot for Edmonton is the Kings were much better at home this season than on the road where they went 17-19-5. Where the Oilers are getting killed is in power plays. Edmonton has yet to score with a man advantage, while the Kings have five goals in 10 opportunities. I think that starts to even out. I have a futures bet on LA to win the Stanley Cup but I still believe Edmonton makes this a series. I'll back the Oilers at home in a must-win spot.
The Kings are truly a special team on home ice this season but just 17-19-5 away. Are the Oilers really going to go down 3-0 for the second straight playoff series after last year's Stanley Cup Finals? We love backing desperate teams in their first home playoff game of a series. I expect it to be Calvin Pickard in net Friday as Stuart Skinner was hammered in the first two. By far the difference so far has been special teams as the Kings have scored five power-play goals in the series and gone 5-for-5 on the PK. Teams generally are much better (and get more calls) on special teams on home ice.
Edmonton is in a must-win game and should be pumped up to return home. The Kings were dominant at Crypto Arena this season but not so much on the road. Play Edmonton.