The Raiders have leaned on Sincere McCormick in the run game recently, giving him 12 carries against the Chiefs that he turned into 64 yards. With great efficiency the last two weeks, the market is expecting a similar workload and for him to continue posting a solid average on his carries. But I see a Raiders offensive line that could have issues against a Bucs front that has held three straight teams under 80 rushing yards, including the 49ers with Christian McCaffrey still on the field. There's also the possibility this game gets out of hand and McCormick is only able to get 6-8 carries while the Raiders play catch-up. I see an inflated number here with McCormick coming off a strong game.

Jakobi Meyers is officially questionable with an ankle injury, but he's expected to play in this appealing matchup. Meyers has been targeted 26 times the past two games, recording 218 receiving yards. Vegas is a heavy underdog and Aidan O'Connell likely will be throwing a ton to catch up. It's not like the Raiders can run the ball at all, anyway.

The Raiders' offense runs through Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, but new OC Scott Turner also wants to utilize Tre Tucker's blazing speed. Tucker had a 58-yard TD catch at K.C., and the week before he hauled in seven of eight targets for 82 yards vs. Denver. Against the Bucs' bottom-4 pass defense, I expect Tucker to get loose for at least 30 yards.

I'm running out of superlatives to describe Brock Bowers. In addition to having the greatest season by a rookie TE in NFL history, he is having one of the best seasons by a TE ever. Bowers target profile mirrors that of an elite WR1, except hes a rookie TE, playing in an anemic passing offense. Now he gets a matchup where the Raiders are expected to be trailing, against a Bucs defense that is 29th in EPA per dropback, as well as ranking dead last in success % per dropback. This checks all the boxes for a potential spike week. I'd play this up to 74.5.

Mike Evans hasn't practiced yet this week (as of Thursday evening) and I think that may be keeping his receiving yards number reasonable, so I'll go ahead and scoop it up now. Evans is THE target for Baker Mayfield when he's on the field and that was illustrated yet again when we cashed his prop last week to the tune of 8 receptions on 12 targets for 118 yards. He's got a great matchup against the Raiders and getting to 100+ again is not out of the question. If he somehow regresses with his injuries over the weekend and doesn't suit up, the bet will be void, but I expect him to play and be a full go in a big game for Tampa.

The Bucs are allowing 12.12 yards/completion to TEs, worst in the NFL. This kid is already one of the best in the league at that position, he gets all kinds of targets and is averaging 7 catches for 74 yards. I expect this to be a bit of a shootout and Aiden O'Connell is trying to show he can be a starter somewhere; throwing it up for this kid to get it is his best shot to move the ball. Bucs secondary has been bad overall. Bowers has 71+ in 5 of his last 8 games, some of that with Gardner Minshew, who was playing awful football.

Baker has a chance to win the TD crown and will bounce back here. The Panthers have been a bad matchup for him ... but the Raiders secondary has been a great matchup for everyone except for Patrick Mahomes. Funny how that works. Raiders have allowed 13 passing TDs in their last 5 games. Baker has 2+ passing TDs in 4 of 6 home games and his offense is getting healthier. Raiders coming off another heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs. They have lagged on the road. I like all of the redzone options in the pass game, including multiple RBs.

Evans has become the fulcrum of the Bucs passing game from the moment he came back from injury, just like he was before he went down. and with Chris Godwin still out, and the Raiders secondary quite poor, I love this matchup and value. Evans has 14 TDs in his last 13 home games. He has a TD in 7 of his last 9 home games and 10 of 13. Raiders have allowed 11 WR TDs in 12 games. His wingspan and leverage and ability to box out in the redzone are things Baker Mayfield will lean heavily into here.

The Raiders defense will be hard pressed to bring it like they did vs KC in what was a very emotional game for them. Bucs can put up points quickly and LV secondary is bad. These teams are 16-8 to the over. Bucs home games are averaging 52 points; Raiders road games are averaging 46. OF Raiders 7 games outside the AFC West, 5 are over this. Aiden O'Connell has Raiders offense moving better than Gardner Minshew did. Their TEs will be a problem for a weak Bucs D.