The Commanders are on the right track with Jayden Daniels running the show, and the Panthers are a mess. I don't love the full game spread here, but I expect Washington to lead by a touchdown at halftime.

Don't mind that this total is one of the highest this weekend in the NFL. Partly because we're talking about the Commanders, who have been scoring at a better than 34 ppg clip across their past four games as LSU Heisman rookie QB Jayden Daniels continues to impress, his latest showcase featuring 269 YP last Sunday vs. the tough Ravens defense. More so, it's the Panthers, who have landed over the last four games since vet Andy Dalton replaced Bryce Young at QB. Add in last year's Dalton start at Seattle, and Carolina is 5-0 "over" when Dalton starts since last season. Panthers games have gone 64, 58, 58, 46, and 58 points in the games Dalton has started since last season. Play Panthers-Commanders "Over"

Volume, volume, volume. Hubbard is seeing a lot of it and he's proving to be one of the better stories on an awful Carolina team. In his last four games, all with Andy Dalton as the team's QB, Hubbard has surpassed this combined yardage total in part due to an average of 22 touches per game, including four or more receptions in each contest. Against a Commanders defense which has allowed 5 of 6 RBs to surpass this number in 2024, I expect another 100+ yard performance from the Panthers' top offensive weapon.

I certainly understand this number against a bad Carolina defense but it's not that easy to score 31 points in the NFL -- the Commanders have done it three of six games. Carolina can't stop the run at all so in theory the clock should be running all day Sunday. Feels like a bit of a letdown game for Washington as well off a marquee matchup last Sunday in Baltimore. The hook definitely might matter as I wouldn't play this any lower.

He has become the fulcrum of the offense and a player who can win for them in any situation. Panthers downfield passing game isn't fooling anyone anymore, with Andy Dalton starting now for weeks, and he's going to want to take some lay-ups here on the road. Hubbard has at least 4 receptions in 5 straight games. He knows how to get open and is a matchup problem. Commandos are 25th in the NFL allowing 85.2% completions to RBs. Panthers don't have a lot of weapons to work with here.

Top receivers have shredded the Panthers. Mediocre receivers have done it, too. They give up a ton of big plays. And Scary Terry is in good form and Jayden Daniels clearly loved pushing it down the field to him. A WR has 73 yards or more in all but one game vs CAR this season. They can't get a pass rush and Daniels will kill them inside the pocket and outside of it as well.

Daniels will be back to his running ways in this game, which will set up on script and off script deep shots all over the place against a bad secondary and middling pass rush. Explosives have fueled the Commanders offense The Panthers have allowed a completion of 42 yards or more in 5 of the last 6.

The Ravens mush rush did a tremendous job containing him last week. He couldn't explode down the right side of the field and break contain out of 11 Personnel like he had been. That spread has been deadly for Daniels and CAR is 30th in EPA and 30th in success rate vs the run in those looks. Fear not, he can get back to that against the broken Panthers. He was averaging over 60 yards rushing/G going into Week 6 for good reason. Caleb Williams - not nearly Daniels on the ground - ran 5 times for 34 yards on the Panthers, the closest thing to a running QB they have faced. They are in trouble here.

This is a dream matchup at home, in perfect weather conditions, for the explosive Washington offense. Brian Robinson is expected to return. The Commanders have beaten their team totals by an NFL-high average of 8.2 points per game. Carolina's injury-decimated defense has allowed 34-plus points in three straight games to less dominant attacks. Look for the Commanders to score at least 31.

These are two dead over teams for me. Panthers have played four games at 57 or over, and have allowed 26 or more five times and 34+ in three straight. And with Andy Dalton at QB now, they score enough garbage points to help us get over some bigger numbers. Commanders D has a lot of issues, too. Panthers are 5-1 to the over. Commanders are 5-1 to the over. Commanders have four games at 53 points or higher. Jayden Daniels is gonna love chucking it all over the place on this secondary and he’s not facing the best rush D in the NFL this week. This has already moved a point since Sunday.