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The list of players sitting out with injuries resembles an all-star fantasy team. For the Rams, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. For the 49ers, RB Christian McCaffrey and WR-RB Deebo Samuels. Then there is the Ram' O-line ravaged by injuries. Two sharp offensive minds, Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, will be tested like never before to dig up ideas for scoring. Aging QB Matthew Stafford and overachieving counterpart Brock Purdy are not do-it-yourself types. First team to 20 wins.
Kyle Shanahan is compromised offensively from a weapons standpoint, he is facing a broken run defense that no longer has Aaron Donald, and he has an effective back-up RB who already has 48 rushes. Outside zone to the left side is money; Rams allowing 5.5/carry, and last in rushing D EPA by far. A third-straight 100-yard rushing game is very within reach. 49ers have to stick with what they do best
The Rams offense has been brutalized by injuries at WR and on the O-line, but this is still a massive spread at home against a division rival. This was the number in Week 2 last year and while the Rams were healthier, so were the 49ers, who are now down Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. That should make this a lower-scoring game; with Matthew Stafford still healthy, Sean McVay should be able to generate enough scoring for the Rams to cover as home 'dogs of more than a TD in a divisional game.
I have a lot of respect for Sean McVay and his ability to work around injuries, but I think the offensive line is a big problem for the Rams and that's likely where this game is decided. It's true that the 49ers have some significant injuries as well, but their interiors on both sides of the ball are relatively healthy and that's why the 49ers are likely to pull away in this "road game." Look for this game to be close early and the 49ers to pull away late behind the run game.