This line jumped 4 points amid news of the absence of Browns QB Deshaun Watson, and it's hard to believe he's still worth that much to the spread. Even so, this opens a window of value on the Browns. The 49ers could be in a flat spot following their signature win against Dallas, and an inspired Browns defense should do just enough to keep this a one-score game.

If you've seen P.J. Walker start an NFL game, you're aware he's better off throwing the ball short. Safe throws can help keep the chains moving, and Ford should be a welcome outlet for Walker as they look for openings against the stout SF defense.

Browns running back Jerome Ford is a good receiver who caught 21 passes as a senior at Cincinnati. He's drawn 13 targets the past three games. With the Browns' P.J. Walker likely to be playing from behind and eager to get rid of the ball quickly before the 49ers' pass rush arrives, I like Ford to catch 3-plus balls at nice plus-money.

This is comically low, but I'll throw a half-unit down before it goes down further as it appears Deshaun Watson is out again. What unbelievable stones on that guy, and I don't mean it as a compliment or as a hot stone massage reference (though that works). He gets $230 million guaranteed and was medically cleared for Week 4 but opted to sit out and now post-bye still can't play? The Browns frankly deserve this for that stupid contract. Too bad as I was prepared to take Cleveland ATS if he was healthy as this feels like a trap for the Niners. Not sure the Browns get to 10 points against that SF defense with PJ Walker at QB. Cleveland's D is excellent, though.

The 49ers look like the best team in football right now, rolling past the Cowboys on Sunday night in a massive statement game. Heading to Cleveland would be a trap but if Deshaun Watson can't play, laying less than a touchdown with this defense against a rookie backup QB is a gift, even against a decent Browns defense. Watson didn't practice Wednesday and made the call about playing last week apparently. With a guaranteed contract it's hard to see him risking it against SF's stout defense.

This total has dropped so much already I want the other side of it. Yes, Cleveland's run defense is legit but San Francisco is getting it done in the air too this season, significantly. Not to mention the 49ers defense could leave Brock Purdy and crew with short fields all day long. I respect why the total is so low but a 27-14 type game gets us home...and the 49ers on average put up a few more than that. I'll take the shot here.

The Browns are coming off their bye but it's unclear if Deshaun Watson (shoulder) will be healthy enough to face the surging 49ers after sitting out the Week 4 loss to Baltimore. Even if Watson plays, San Francisco is a much more complete team. The Niners have scored 30-plus in each game. Against a limited Cleveland offense missing Nick Chubb and maybe its starting QB -- the Browns average 4.4 yards per play, which ranks 27th -- San Fran likely only needs 24 to cover here.