Unfortunately for Daniel Jones, game day is now groundhog day. There really isn't a fix for the Giants offense and every game where New York faces a superior opponent, Jones will be playing from behind and forced to throw further and further down the field, thus leading to pick after pick. There's a reason he's thrown 3x more INT's this season than TD's.

Giants/Dolphins over 47.5 - No need to overthink Dolphin games. I'm playing the over until they go under a couple of games. Do you remember when they scored 70 points!?! Oh yeah it was two weeks ago at home. The Giants defense is allowing 30.5 points per game to teams not named Miami. The Dolphin defenses is ranked 24th, one place behind the Giant defene, in yard per play at 5.9.

This type of game ends in plenty of rush attempts. Both the oddsmakers and our model have this as a double digit win for Miami, which bodes nicely for running backs on the winning side. While Achane is technically the backup, there is plenty of opportunity for him to feast late. The Giants allow the 8th most rushing yards per game, and even worse on the road. Achane should be good for at least 10 carries, our model projects him to hit 64 yards.

It is unfortunate for the Giants to limp into a road game against a very good Dolphins squad missing 3/5 of the offensive line and perhaps the best player on offense in Saquon Barkley. This leaves a defense on the field too often vs the most explosive offense in the NFL. No bueno.

If the past month hasn't been bad enough for the G-Men, now they get the Dolphins, who when last seen at Hard Rock were putting 70 on a Broncos team that was as discombobulated as the Giants look at the moment. Even Savannah Guthrie could tell you this is a scary matchup, after Daniel Jones was sacked 10 times by Seattle on Monday. Moreover, take out the 2nd half of the Arizona game, and NY has been outscored 114-15 in its other 14 quarters this season! Miami might be in a bad mood, too, after getting boat-raced last Sunday by the Bills for its first loss of the season. No telling what havoc Tua and his weapons might wreak at Hard Rock.

The Giants offense hasn't had much to hang its hat on through four weeks, but Robinson is becoming a go-to target for Daniel Jones. After playing limited snaps in his Week 3 debut, Robinson had the second-highest snap rate at receiver behind Darius Slayton against Seattle and led the team in targets while finishing with 40 yards on five receptions. If the Dolphins are up big, they should be fine letting Robinson pick up meaningless yards in the second half as they avoid giving up a big play. Miami has let eight wide receivers get to 35 yards this season, and Robinson is the best candidate to reach that number on this offense.

The Dolphins offense should have a field day with a struggling Giants defense that is having tackling issues. With the game projected to be a blowout, the Dolphins should have plenty of work to go around for all their RBs just like against the Broncos when their top three backs combined for 40 attempts. Achane has proven capable of getting to 50 rushing yards on any single play, which he's done in back-to-back weeks, and the presence of Miami's elite WR duo means opposing defenses can't just focus on limiting his production. If Achane is getting 10+ carries, he should fly over this number.

Former Jets QB Sam Darnold once saw ghosts. I think Giants QB Daniel Jones is seeing chia pets (Ch-Ch-Ch-Chia!; today years old when I learned actually have pop culture chias now -- Willie Nelson one is fantastically ridiculous) when he drops back at this point with the beating he is taking and his INT ways returning. Or maybe he's just closing his eyes while throwing. Again. We don't get plus-money this week but still quite a good price. I am only doing a half unit, though, in case Jones gets pulled for Tyrod Taylor -- ideally after a pick.

The sorry Giants are on a short week and are the only team in the league yet to record a pick. Tua has thrown one in three of four games but this feels like a blowout where he might only play three quarters and not throw much after the first half. And, yeah, I'll likely be playing a prop on Daniel Jones to throw an INT. My only concern is he might get benched mid-game.