Minnesota was a full touchdown favorite through the offseason, and nothing drastic has changed in Week 1 for this line to drop other than sharp(?) money coming in on Tampa Bay. All this talk about Baker Mayfield having the best weapons in his career fails to mention that it’s still Baker Mayfield throwing the ball. The Vikings, meanwhile, have gotten Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson even more help with Jordan Addison. Brian Flores should improve Minnesota’s defense as it moves away from the failed soft zone and blitzes the hell out of Mayfield. This line has simply come down too much.

Osborn has had some huge games when the defense swarms to Justin Jefferson, and QB Kirk Cousins isn't afraid to go to him. Osborn should still be the second option until rookie Jordan Addison gets acclimated and earns the quarterback's trust. This number is too low.

The Vikings famously went 13-4 last season despite allowing more points than they scored, giving up the NFL's third most points per game, then lost both Za'Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson to the Browns. Expect Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to torch their shaky CBs. Even with Baker Mayfield now throwing it, the Bucs have the better 'D' and should keep it close here. Grab the points.

This is silly low. Addison was one of college football's most explosive receivers over the past two seasons with two different teams and two different quarterbacks. And now we're talking about a Vikings offense that was top-three in the NFL in pass rate last year and is expected to be right back up there again in 2023. And we're talking about a Bucs defense that remains solid against the run, making the matchup all the sweeter for the Vikings passing game. Addison's elusiveness is a tremendous asset that will make Minnesota's passing game even stronger. It would be a shocking disappointment if Addison couldn't get even 40 yards.

Will update analysis shortly.

The Vikings' mediocre defense is a good opening matchup for Baker Mayfield, who impressed in the preseason and has outstanding wideouts in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and rookie speedster Trey Palmer. Mayfield should benefit from the Bucs' upgrade at OC, with former Seahawks QB coach Dave Canales calling plays instead of Byron Leftwich. You're going to see a lot fewer 1st-down runs that have no chance. Brian Flores' aggressive scheme can't cover up all the holes on this Vikings defense.The Bucs field a solid defense that should keep them competitive against the Vikings' explosive pass game. Look for Minnesota, which went 11-0 in one-score games and got outscored overall last season, to win a 27-24 type of game.