The Chargers are probably my second-favorite team after the Bears. Don't know, growing up they were always in these wild 4 p.m. ET shootout games back when you were stuck with whatever game was available via the broadcast networks. Dan Fouts, etc. Great uniforms. I love Justin Herbert but think he's being poorly coached at times and fully expect the Bolts to fire Brandon Staley this offseason barring a playoff run (he's gone if they miss again) and replace him with QB whisperer Sean Payton. Thus, it's tough for me to back Tua Tagovailoa over Herbert when the Dolphins clearly blew it in the 2020 draft, but LA is just destroyed by injury right now. Safety Derwin James Jr., defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day and cornerback Bryce Callahan will be out and right tackle Trey Pipkins III is listed as doubtful. Edge rusher Joey Bosa and D-linemen Austin Johnson, Otito Ogbonnia and Christian Covington are already on injured reserve. Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater was placed on injured reserve after Week 3. Miami is pretty healthy.

The Chargers picked a bad week to deactivate several ailing defensive players. Missing from the 30th-ranked unit are DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, S Derwin James Jr. and CB Bryce Callahan. They join four more regulars, notably pass rusher extraordinaire Joey Bosa, mending from injuries. Miami's dynamic eighth-ranked offense could have a field day. Stricken L.A. also likely goes to work without OT Trey Pipkins III, which would expose QB Justin Herbert to more sacks. He has gone down 14 times the past three games.

At first glance this looks like a mismatch, but I like fading the Dolphins on the road, where Tua Tagovailoa is 6-8-1 ATS compared to 12-4 ATS at home. The Chargers are floundering but Justin Herbert is the kind of QB you want to back as an underdog. He can get us the backdoor cover. With Mike Williams practicing on a limited basis, Herbert should have enough weapons against a suspect Dolphins' pass defense. Take the Chargers +3.5 at -120.

The lookahead line here was Miami -1.5 last week, the Dolphins got their clocks cleaned despite facing a backup QB, and yet it's now at Miami -3 and threatening to go to 3.5. That's how bad the Chargers look right now after a lifeless loss to the Raiders where they were spotted a TD with an immediate pick-six and then didn't score another TD until they were behind 27-13 in the fourth quarter. The Chargers run defense gets the pub for being awful, but the pass D isn't that much better, and the offense has a tougher matchup here than they did against the Raiders. With Terron Armstead potentially back and Tua Tagovailoa fine, I like the better-coached Dolphins to secure the cover.