The Ravens no doubt circled this game in the offseason after being outscored 82-38 in two blowout defeats a year ago. Lamar Jackson did not complete the first meeting and was entirely absent for the second. Believe it or not, Baltimore has actually lost five straight home games by a combined 12 (!) points; that’s another trend that needs to come to an end. While the Ravens defense has struggled at times this season, the Bengals have not been achieving explosive plays at nearly the same rate they did while making a run to the Super Bowl last year. That’s not a problem for Baltimore, which frequently picks up chunk plays. It looked like the hook might come in earlier, but with Baltimore now giving a flat field goal at -3 (-110), backing Jackson as he continues his MVP run in primetime is the right move.

The Ravens have lacked a killer instinct at home thus far this season. They had big leads against both Miami and Buffalo, only to squander them and suffer late losses. Look for the issues to continue plaguing Baltimore against division-rival Cincinnati. In a key AFC North battle, grab the Bengals and the points.

The Bengals destroyed the Ravens twice last season, but now Baltimore is healthy in the secondary and Joe Burrow is not playing at the same elite level. Cincinnati cannot run the ball, ranking 31st in yards per attempt. If the Bengals keep putting themselves in third-and-long, their third-down conversion rate is going to decline. This is a great bounceback spot for the Ravens at home. They've suffered two heartbreaking losses at M&T Bank Stadium. MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson entered this season with a 22-7 home record and a 5-2 overall mark versus Cincinnati. He missed one of the two matchups last season. Lay the field goal.

The Ravens wield the better roster, but a few factors tip the scales ever so slightly to the visitors. The schedule-makers afforded Cincinnati three extra days of prep. Last season, Cincinnati emphatically swept the series, winning by 24 and 20. The Bengals’ rough 0-2 start is history after a pair of double-digit victories, albeit against softer competition. A few sportsbooks are offering 3.5 points, so it might be prudent for Bengals backers to wait for the possible hook. On the other hand, a dip to 2.5 would be undesirable.

The Bengals went 2-0 vs. the Ravens last year, scoring 41 points in both blowouts. Lamar Jackson was injured in the first game and then missed the rematch two months later. The Ravens could easily be 4-0, and this seems like a nice bounce-back spot playing for revenge off a loss. Lamar Jackson's QBR is 72.4, while Joe Burrow's QBR is 49.4 through Week 4. The Ravens are 8-2 straight-up after committing 9 or more penalties in defeat. Well-coached team. Let's swallow the FG and take the Ravens!