The Broncos are inching up to getting a full field goal ahead of kickoff, but we’re running out of time. Though neither team has impressed early in the season, the Raiders are completely out of sorts. Derek Carr will be the best quarterback that the Broncos have faced at this early juncture – their defense has feasted on far worse offenses than Las Vegas’ – but without Hunter Renfrow, it’s tough to see the hosts finding enough consistency through four quarters. Denver, meanwhile, seemed to finally put things together in the fourth quarter against San Francisco last week and could easily win this outright. This will be a half-bet for me at +2.5 (+100), but I'd go with a whole wager at +3 (-110) if you can get it.

Josh McDaniels is 1-10 SU in his last 11 games as a head coach. His vaunted offense will be missing Hunter Renfrow again Sunday and facing a Denver defense that's allowed one offensive TD in the last 10 quarters. Denver's offense has moved the ball well but has been terrible in the red zone. I expect a modest breakthrough Sunday as Las Vegas has failed to generate pressure from anyone besides Maxx Crosby and continues to deal with cornerback injuries. The key will be Russell Wilson using his legs like he did last Sunday night, which helped Denver overcome San Francisco. It helps that Jerry Jeudy was not on the injury report all week after missing most of the practices leading up toWeek 3. Take the points.

The Raiders are at home, but they are still without a victory, and the Broncos offense will only improve as QB Russell Wilson gets acclimated. My simulations have Denver winning 55 percent of the time, so at plus money this seems like a no-brainer. The Raiders won’t be able to run the ball, and Denver’s defense has been excellent against the pass (170 yards per game). It sure looks like the wrong team is favored here.

This is not how Josh McDaniels envisioned the Raiders' start, going at 0-3 while not covering any of the games. No loss was larger than six points, and two of the three games stayed Under the total. The Broncos are still breaking in Russell Wilson, but his last drive on Sunday night was vintage Wilson. The most impressive area for the Broncos is their smothering defense, which has helped all three games stay Under the total. The Raiders have covered eight of the last nine meetings. But not here. Wrong team favored. Broncos cover.