Here's four people I do not trust: Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Kliff Kingsbury and Matt Rhule. It’s problematic that all will have significant roles in this game, yet, there’s no doubt that Murray has been far superior to Mayfield, arguably the worst starter in the NFL this season. The Cardinals are getting James Conner back healthy with Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore both playing. Arizona also plays well historically as a road underdog with Kingsbury leading the charge. Christian McCaffrey is back for the Panthers, but it’s not enough to get me to side with the home team.

I'm expecting Marquise Brown (foot) and Rondale Moore (hamstring) to play. The Cardinals have covered nine of their last 10 regular-season road games. Carolina was fortunate to beat New Orleans last week and Christian McCaffrey's status is truly up in the air. He did not practice all week due to a quad injury. Vance Joseph's blitz-happy scheme should work well against Baker Mayfield, whose already-poor footwork gets even worse under pressure. Look for Carolina to fall to 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games.

Shocking stat: The Cardinals have swept their last seven games outright as a road underdog. Their two defeats this year were at home, but the guests (Rams, Chiefs) were a few cuts above Carolina. I'm not sure a team that just snapped a slide of nine consecutive straight-up losses should be favored. QB Baker Mayfield’s completion rate is an abysmal 51.9%, though a leaky line has its fingerprints on the number. If RB Christian McCaffrey, listed as questionable, sits out, ‘Zona should be a clear-cut fave.

The Panthers are trending up after securing their first win last week, but it came against a limited Saints offense with a QB playing hurt. The Carolina passing attack can thank the Bears for not being the worst in the league, and I don't even know if they can take advantage of this questionable Arizona secondary. The Cardinals offense looks much less than the sum of its parts, but Kyler Murray can at least create plays, and the Arizona offensive line looks like its strength. The lookahead here was Arizona -2.5, and I don't know what's changed to swing the line four points. Cardinals should be favored here.