Seeing this game gave me déjà vu as these teams faced off in the 2021 kickoff game. I took the Cowboys then as a nine-point ‘dog (they lost by three), and there’s no reason to do anything different here. Combining Tom Brady’s extended preseason absence and an offensive line that may struggle to protect him, Tampa Bay is not in the best position to combat a strong Dallas defensive front. It doesn’t matter much to me that Brady is 6-0 all-time against Jerry Jones’ crew. The Cowboys’ plethora of weapons -- especially with Ezekiel Elliot fully healthy – will be on display early and often as Dak Prescott spreads the ball around. With Chris Godwin active, the hope was the line would move to a full field goal closer to kickoff, but alas. Godwin will likely be on a snap count for Tampa Bay. Wait until the last minute to see if you can get the full three, but if not, I like the Cowboys to win straight up anyway, so take the 2.5 for cushion.

A little birdie gave me some advice on this game. I could give you some DVOA statistics etc., I'm just guessing that if your supermodel wife is irked at you it might be distracting ... don't know, something seems off with TB12. Been a decent day overall other than of course a missed PAT in Steelers-Bengals. It's not even mid-September and I have lost three football bets on a missed PAT. But I digress ...

With Tom Brady coming to town to face Dak Prescott, it's no wonder this total is above 50, but there are reasons to be concerned about both offenses. Both have holes in the offensive line after injuries to Tyron Smith and Ryan Jensen, and both aren't 100% at wide receiver with the Cowboys depth chart shaky behind CeeDee Lamb and the Bucs likely to have Chris Godwin in a limited fashion. The Dallas defense has performed much better at home the last few years, especially in 2021, so I think it's likely this game is lower-scoring than people think. It's possible you'll be able to fire Under 51 ahead of kickoff, so wait to see if late action moves this to the key number.

The Cowboys have a major problem at left tackle with Tyron Smith out, but the Buccaneers also have a major problem with the interior of their offensive line, and the key to slowing down Tom Brady is pressure up the middle. The Cowboys defense has been far better at home than on the road over the last few years, and I like their chances at holding a Bucs offense dealing with multiple injuries at receiver in check. The Cowboys have their own WR injury issues, but the key to their success in this matchup should be Dalton Schultz as a reliable No. 2 in the passing game. I think this game should be a pick 'em, so I love the value here.

I like the Cowboys in this spot for a few reasons, beginning with the Buccaneers' offensive line being banged up. I think the Cowboys will focus on ways to attack it and have success making Tom Brady uncomfortable. This is also a showcase spot for a Cowboys club that has pressure and a lot to prove. Take the Cowboys on the money line.