The Jaguars are 5.5-point favorites. Let that sink in. Here's the list of how many games the Jags have won by more than three points since the first game of the 2020 season: Zero. A lot of money drove this number up after Urban Meyer got fired, and I understand that historically teams tend to play better after a coach they dislike goes away. Problem is, the Jags have basically the same players who lost this year's opener to Houston by 16. Should they be favored by 5.5 against anybody, anywhere? Take the points.

Remember when it was the Houston Texans who were the league's embarrassment? The Texans should send a thank you card to Urban Meyer because, hoooooo boy, are the Jaguars an absolute mess right now. The Jaguars have lost five straight and have been outscored 57-7 in the last two weeks. Everything about the franchise seems dysfunctional, and while the Texans are pretty awful themselves, at least they seem to have a plan. I don't know what Jacksonville's is

Four of the last five games involving Houston have stayed under the total while Jacksonville's contests have stayed under in the last eight. The Jaguars have stayed under in 11 of their 13 games this season to stake claim as the NFL’s best under team. It’s the Texans' No. 32 offense against the Jaguars' No. 30 offense. Both defenses play well, and a kicker wins the game. Under is the play.

Six of the last eight Texans games have landed south of this number, and all of the offenses (except maybe the Jets’) were superior to Jacksonville’s. Houston rookie QB Davis Mills is in over his head. Urban Meyer might be gone, but the Jags’ offensive players remain. Trevor Lawrence owns one TD pass in the past six games. The teams average a shockingly low 27.5 points combined.

The Jaguars have fired Urban Meyer and I now want them this week. Might be the last time I play them for a while but I'll take my shot here. While this play is certainly on the locker room boost with Meyer's departure, it's a good spot as well, suiting up at home against the Texans. Houston QB Davis Mills looked great last week against Seattle, started the game near perfectly but I'll take my chances he doesn't do it consecutively. Not to mention, Jacksonville's defense has been playing hard all season, they've just been left in impossible situations. Houston is 1-5 SU on the road this season and in their previous Week 1matchup Trevor Lawrence threw for 3 TD's, his most in a single game this year. The Texans have lost four of their six road games this season by double-digits, give me the Jags and let's see Trevor play with a smile again...at least for this week.

These two teams met in Week 1, with optimism about the Jaguars and pessimism surrounding the Texans making Jacksonville three-point road favorites. Houston went out and smashed Jacksonville, and it hasn't gotten any better for the Jaguars since. They've had less than 200 yards of offense in two straight games, and in the fourth quarter against Tennessee down three scores where most teams rack up garbage time stats, the Jags mustered minus-1 net yards on four possessions. Yet they're laying three to Houston again? Even though the Texans were blown out by the Seahawks, Davis Mills looks miles better than Trevor Lawrence last week. Taking points against one of the league's basement teams is typically a good idea.