The Bengals have taken a injury hits with Riley Reiff and Chidobe Awuzie out. The Broncos are one of few teams in the NFL that still have a real home-field advantage. So what gives? Both teams are models of inconsistency that play games closer than necessary. Whereas the Broncos generally grinding down opponents, the Bengals can pour it on and come from behind. This spread is a reaction to back-to-back Cincy losses. It’s ignoring that the Bengals are 4-2 ATS on the road this season and that Joe Burrow thrives against man coverage, which is what the Broncos deploy. Getting the field goal in this spot feels like a gift, and even though this is one of the most public plays of the week, it’s the right side.

What seems like a coin-flip matchup became appealing when the line eased up to a field goal. The Bengals thrive on the road, having won four of the past five straight-up. DE Trey Hendrickson is seeking a sack in his 10th consecutive games, so Cincy can get to QB Teddy Bridgewater, who has gone down 33 times this year. While the Bengals enter on a two-game slide, they were beaten by the Chargers and 49ers, both better teams than Denver.

The slumping Bengals put right tackle Riley Reiff on injured reserve and starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie on the COVID list. Now they travel to altitude to face a Broncos team that's won four of six. Broncos rookie Javonte Williams (leg) is expected to play. Look for Teddy Bridgewater to take care of the ball and for Cincy's explosive passing attack to struggle somewhat versus Denver's strong secondary. I like this play at anything less than a field goal.

The Bengals are coming off a disappointing overtime loss, but the good news is that Joe Burrow delivered an excellent performance late and shook off concerns about his pinkie injury. The Broncos earned a dominant win, but it came against a bad team coming off its first victory beset by absences, and the Lions still managed to keep it relatively close for an entire half. The outcomes of Week 14 shouldn't have been enough to swing this line four points off the lookahead number of Cincinnati -2.5, yet here we are. I think the Bengals are the better team in this matchup by a decent margin and wouldn't be surprised if this closes at pick 'em or Cincy -1.