One of Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s specialities is having his team prepared after a bye week. I know the Chiefs have had their issues this year ATS-wise, especially in prime time. Yet this is the type of game where Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater’s flaws as a game manager get exposed. Expect the Chiefs to dictate the pace early and make things difficult. Grab Kansas City.

It’s going to be chilly in Kansas City, but there won't be any wind or rain. Denver hasn’t beaten the Chiefs in ages and is just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Broncos have won three of their last four contests, and people are talking playoffs again. Denver appears to be motivated by it and plays great defense every week. The Broncos have stayed Under in their last five games and nine of 11 this season. Their defense allows an average of only 17 points, so the Under is the best bet.

I'm sorry, are the Chiefs suddenly good again? I know they stomped the Raiders a few weeks ago, and are coming off a bye, but I don't think the week off is going to magically fix the problems this team has on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos have been continuously undervalued on the market this season, and while I'd love it if they were still getting 10, 9.5 is more than enough to take the Broncos.

The Chiefs are getting full respect for being back after struggling for the first half of the season, and I have them second in my power ratings. But Denver isn't getting any respect for winning three of its last four games. I thought the Broncos were overrated earlier in the year, but at this point they appear underrated. The offense should get back both tackles for this matchup, and the defense has shown the ability to limit Patrick Mahomes in the past. These teams played in early December in K.C. last year and a Chiefs team playing much better won 22-16 vs. Drew Lock. The Chiefs have struggled to cover as big favorites, and I think this is another win without covering spot.

The Chiefs offense finally found its mojo against the Raiders, but it's the defense that's impressed most of all in recent weeks, allowing just 47 points in its last four games combined. Denver's defense also hasn't allowed more than 17 points in four of its last five games, and I have more confidence in Denver on that side of the ball. These two teams played at this part of the schedule last year amidst Kansas City's big win streak, yet the Chiefs were only able to muster a 22-16 win at home. We could see something similar here, but whether the Chiefs can put up a bunch of points on Sunday, their defense should be able to shut down Denver, leading me to the Under.

The Broncos have won three of four, the loss coming when Philly rushed for 216 yards (5.5 ypc) in a 30-13 win in Week 10. K.C. is not set up to employ that same approach, while the Broncos are designed to limit the Chiefs' explosive passing attack. Teddy Bridgewater is 19-3 ATS as a road dog. He has an explosive rookie RB in Javonte Williams, and a talented group of receivers, to lean on. Although the Chiefs are rolling and coming off a bye, Bridgewater can get us through the back door if needed.