Too many points. No, not in the game, which has an incredible total of 40, but on the line. It's understandable that the Steelers are favored at home in primetime, and their success on Monday Night Football is absolutely unmatched. Still, this team is 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season, and neither team in this game can create explosive plays. David Montgomery is back for the Bears, which should open the offense a bit more, and Justin Fields is coming off the best game of his young career. Pittsburgh should ultimately win -- and a tease with the Ravens on Thursday may be worthwhile -- but expecting it to cover a touchdown in this spot is a tough ask.

Look for the Steelers to finally show expansion on offense. They have not scored more than 27 points in any game, and average just 19. Yet, they’ve won three in a row and have a clear edge over a Bears team struggling on both sides of the football. Take the Steelers.

When the total is beneath 40, an Over is usually the more sensible option. Not here. The teams are a combined 3-12 on Overs. Chicago has stayed south of 39.5 in six of its eight games and landed 1.5 points above it once. Pittsburgh has eclipsed this figure in four of its last seven games, but only by 3.5, 4.5, 6.5 and (in regulation) a half-point. QB Ben Roethlisberger has added a right shoulder injury to his hip and pectoral ailments, so his throwing could be inhibited.

The Steelers have been favored three times this season and failed to cover each time, losing outright twice and winning in overtime. That's a function of their limited offense. This is a big number considering rookie Justin Fields is coming off his best performance. He completed 70 percent of his throws and ran for 103 yards in the Week 8 loss to the 49ers. Chicago kicker Cairo Santos has made 37 straight field goals, another factor that could come in handy Monday night. Take the points.

The Steelers are coming off a big road win over the Browns, while the Bears lost a third straight game with rookie Justin Fields at the helm. But to me, Fields looks like he's getting more comfortable running the offense, and his 100-yard rushing day helped Chicago stay competitive until late. Meanwhile, the Steelers beat a struggling Browns offense with a quarterback at less than 100% but didn't look great offensively, as has been the case for much of the year. While I worry about a Chicago defense that'll probably be missing Khalil Mack again, the low total in this game suggests points will be at a premium, so this is going to be a tough number for Pittsburgh to cover regardless.