Last week, I went on a limb backing the Pack without Davante Adams. This week, I'm doing it again with Aaron Rodgers inactive. Green Bay boasts a better defense and running game, and as we've seen early this season, backup QBs can find success. The Packers have their full complement of playmakers back with Adams and Allen Lazard both active, giving Jordan Love all the weapons he needs. Though there's questions about Love, I like that he has some mobility to escape pressure, and I trust Matt LaFleur -- somewhat, at least -- to put together a game plan friendly to his first-time starter given Green Bay had the entire week to prepare. A touchdown is holds value against KC, which has lost to nearly every big-time team it's faced.

This line moved 7.5 points with the news Aaron Rodgers would be unavailable to play due to COVID-19 protocols. I think he's worth more to the line than that. So take the Chiefs, right? Well, the more points the Chiefs are laying, the less comfortable I am taking them. While this is a much more important game for the Chiefs as they struggle to stay in the playoff race, the offense has just looked disjointed for too much of the season to expect them to throw up a big number on demand. And what if Jordan Love is solid? I think there's a better chance of that than the Chiefs fixing all their issues in one week. Lay the -120 before this reaches 7.

It’s not that Jordan Love, who steps in for the incomparable Aaron Rodgers (COVID-19) at QB, will necessarily devolve into a basket case. He was drafted a year ago as A-Rod’s successor. Problem is, the Packers’ offense ranks a pedestrian 22nd, a status disguised by Rodgers’ brilliance. The Chiefs’ offense has been mundane itself lately, with 23 combined points the past two weeks. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 300-plus yards just once since Week 2.

There was already some value on the Chiefs in this one amid an overly adjusted number because of another lackluster performance on Monday night against the Giants. Needless to say, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers testing positive for Covid and missing Sunday's games gives Kansas City a prime opportunity for another needed win, and locking in a play at pick'em before the number gets adjusted is a value position.

There are rumors the COVID outbreak on the Packers has spread to Aaron Rodgers and that his status for Sunday is in major jeopardy, so let's jump this spread now in case that's true. I don't see Jordan Love beating Patrick Mahomes even though the Chiefs are clearly not as good as in past years.

The Packers have won seven straight and also covered seven straight...and they're about to get healthier. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS on the road while Kansas City is 0-3 ATS at home. The Chiefs were lucky that the New York Giants were incompetent offensively Monday night or they would have lost outright. Kansas City refuses to take it's medicine on offense, electing to refuse the run game even when it's working, not to mention it's a short week for them as well. Give me Aaron Rodgers with the points.