This line has doubled since last week, and it's likely on its way to a full touchdown ahead of kickoff. Buffalo enters as one of the best DVOA teams through five weeks -- ever -- while Tennessee is unable to get things together defensively. If this pick was purely based on a belief in the Bills' offense, that would be one thing, but its defense has been dominant. Buffalo has outscored its last four opponents 156-41 with two shutouts (against bad teams). It has also not allowed a single opponent this season to score more than three touchdowns in a game. Meanwhile, over the last four weeks, the Bills have averaged 39 points with wins coming by at least 18 points. Over four quarters, Buffalo will prove out as more than a touchdown superior.

Every single SL expert thus far has picked Buffalo tonight, so of course I have to go contrarian. The Titans did spank the visiting Bills last year, although I suppose it's fair to say Buffalo is better this year so far and Tennessee worse. Still, Derrick Henry can help keep Josh Allen & Co. off the field and this close. There's also the possibility of a mini-letdown for the Bills off that huge win in Kansas City. It's the fourth straight year the clubs meet and the dog has won the past three.

The spread has been rendered meaningless in Bills games. By scoring at least 35 points in four straight outings and flexing a defense that has pulled off two shutouts while limiting the mighty Chiefs to 20 points, they have sculpted a cover margin of 15.3. A key matchup flatters Buffalo here. The defense yields 78.4 rushing yards on average, fourth-best in the NFL, so league-leading rusher Derrick Henry is unlikely to roam free. He was held to 57 yards on the ground in last year’s meeting, even though Tennessee coasted to a win.

The Bills have won four in a row in dominant fashion, by an average of 28.8 points. They rank No. 1 in scoring offense and scoring defense this season. If there's any team that can slow down Derrick Henry, it's Buffalo. Play on the road favorite.

Because it's Monday Night Football against another AFC contender, I don't think the Bills have a letdown. Especially because they remember losing to Tennessee last season. The brilliant, aggressive Brian Daboll will devise a plan that should devastate a vulnerable Titans defense. Lay the points as the Bills win a 34-24 type of game.

This line opened low and the market immediately jumped on the Bills, but there's still plenty of value in laying this number before it rises more. The Bills defense answered any remaining questions in the win over the Chiefs, and their 4.3 yards per play number is a half-yard better than any other defense. The Tennessee offense can punish defenses with the run game but isn't complete enough to expect a big point total against a quality unit. Meanwhile, the Titans defense has been terrible, allowing a season-worst 454 yards to the Jaguars last week. The primetime start alleviates some concern that this could be a letdown spot for Buffalo after slaying the Chiefs dragon as well. This line should be Bills -6.5.

The Bills are on an absolute heater right now and have been cashing for us week after week so why would we stop betting on them now? Buffalo has won its past four regular season road games by 18+ points. The Bills boast the best offense in the NFL and the best scoring defense as well. While I appreciate the grit of this Titans team, they're still dealing with injuries and that secondary is giving up 8 yards per play in the air. Nightmare matchup. Lastly, remember what happened between these two on that covid week last season? I guarantee Buffalo does.