There's a lot of story-driven movement on this game, as there's been a good deal of reporting about the Seahawks traveling east and the unfamiliarity of the Colts offense with QB Carson Wentz. While these factors might have an effect, my system has the odds of Indianapolis winning closer to +125. I'll take the positive odds rather than the spread because the probability distributions constructed by my data indicate a low probability of this game being a close win by Seattle. Grab the plus money.

Between Carson Wentz's lacking practice, the Colts' lacking playmaking talent and the Seahawks' over-abundance of them, Seattle should be favored by a few more points despite this 1 p.m. kickoff being an historically tough spot for West Coast teams. If this game was a few weeks later in the season with the Seahawks banged up and Russell Wilson in his head, I could see siding with the Colts. However, Wilson and Co. will be rested and in early season form, so I'm willing to back the Seahawks at the key number in Week 1.

The Colts have the better defense here, and they're getting points at home. But how does Carson Wentz -- the same Wentz who was the worst starting QB in the league last season -- suddenly look good again despite missing three weeks of practice with a foot injury and additional time on the COViD list? Maybe Frank Reich works his magic and gets Wentz going, but it's hard to imagine it happening now (and with the Colts missing both their 2020 leading receiver and starting left tackle). Ride with Russell Wilson and lay the points.

Colts head coach Frank Reich wanted Carson Wentz. He knew what kind of talent Wentz has, and the ex-Philly QB knew the offense. Wentz has great weapons in Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle. Russell Wilson is one of the three best QB in the NFL, with big time playmakers in receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

About the theory that West Coast teams traveling three time zones for games are vulnerable: It does not apply to Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are 12-1 straight up the past three seasons in such a scenario, and not even a 10 a.m. “body clock” kickoff should be detrimental. The ‘Hawks ranked eighth in league scoring a season ago, and left OT Duane Brown might be the league’s best pass protector. His job got easier with the departure of Justin Houston and Denico Autry, who together managed 15.5 sacks last year. Indy’s O-line inspires little confidence. Colts QB Carson Wentz, whose practice time with his new team was limited, could face an un-welcoming party.

I feel like a bit of a sucker here, as the market is clearly underrating the effect of fans in the stands with as many as six true road teams favored by a field goal or more in Week 1. But this is all about Indy's injury issues, which include a third-stringer at left tackle, no Xavier Rhodes, Quenton Nelson questionable, and Carson Wentz not getting much time on the field to prepare for the season. The Seahawks overperform when they travel east due to expectations, and I have no worries about them being ready to play in this early game. I hope you got the lower number earlier, but I think Seattle wins by at least three.

Early in the season I'm more inclined to rely on principles that have been good for me in the past, and betting on Russell Wilson has made me plenty of money over the years. I'm more than happy to do so again, particularly against a Colts team that will be starting Carson Wentz. Wentz hasn't been practicing in camp due to injury, and I don't think he's going to be sharp. That'll cost the Colts.

The Colts are starting to feel like the 2020 Philadelphia Eagles, and not just because of the guy under center. The Eagles had high expectations last year but dealt with a string of injuries before the season, even more early in the year and ultimately collapsed. Time will tell if the Colts can weather the storm, but with T.Y. Hilton out, left tackle a question mark and Carson Wentz barely practicing with the first unit before kickoff of this game, I can't help but think points will be hard to come by for Indy, especially after the Seahawks defense largely dominated last year after the acquisition of Jamal Adams. Seattle won't open up the fireworks if they don't have to, so expect a low score.