So glad I waited on this one as it's back to 3.5. Why on earth are the Jaguars even favored? Did oddsmakers not see them in the preseason? Trevor Lawrence may be a stud but his O-Line is freaking terrible. Houston won't be as bad as people think -- Tyrod Taylor is a decent QB and the Texans have a nice stable of running backs. I think there's a good chance they win outright and certainly not lose by more than 3.

Houston has become the whipping boy of fans and analysts alike. No team is projected with fewer wins this season. But the Texans should get the jump here to eclipsing the low total. Though QB Deshaun Watson and DE J.J. Watt are grave losses, Houston’s ground game should be vastly improved with veteran RB imports Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram and Rex Burkhead. Lovie Smith, overmatched as a head coach at Illinois, has returned to his rightful role as defensive coordinator in Houston. Surely, he will game-plan to successfully throw off Jags rookie QB Trevor Lawrence and a shaky supporting cast in his debut.

The total is a perfect storm of the public hating the Houston Texans without Watson, Hopkins and Fuller combined with a rookie QB + head coach combination for the Jaguars. These teams aren't good defensively, and the market is clearly too much credit to the Urban Meyer defense. My simulations make this game 47.5 and I could easily make assumptions that push that number closer to 49. Take the Over as both teams find the endzone without much trouble in this one.

This number falling below the crucial threshold of 45 makes it very playable for me. We will need just six touchdowns and a field goal to get this one done, assuming extra points are converted. Of Houston's 16 games last season, 13 exceeded 45 points as it allowed an average of 29. Jacksonville was even worse defensively, allowing 30.8 points per game and 27 or more in all but two contests. There’s some worry about both offenses, but the defenses are worse. Take the Over in this AFC South battle.

The market is predicting Houston will be the worst team in the league this year. And maybe they're right; the Texans certainly seem willing to trade veterans for picks and plan for the future. But it's not often you're able to catch points against the previous year's worst team in Week 1 with a rookie quarterback at the helm. Throw in Urban Meyer doing little to inspire confidence over the summer, and the only way this line makes sense is if the Texans are historically bad. I'll have to see that to believe it; remember that Tyrod Taylor posted a winning record with a mediocre Bills roster in two of three years by limiting mistakes. Against this defense, the Texans are certainly a live dog.

Here's a matchup of two teams with bad defenses and next to no expectations for a successful season. So why is this total only 45? It probably has to do with the public hating Houston this year, and while I get the roster is one of the least talented in the league, that doesn't mean they'll be stopped by a Jaguars defense that allowed more than 30 points per game last year. After their shocking win over Indy in Week 1, the Jags only held one opponent under 27 points the rest of the year. A market-projected score of 24-21 is giving the Jacksonville defense too much credit, making the Over a nice value play here.