With an offensive line injury and a quarterback in Jared Goff who does not handle pressure well, the Rams are going to have a helluva time against this Buccaneers defensive front. The top-ranked DVOA defense has not always looked the part this season, but Todd Bowles is going to bring the house on Monday night. Tom Brady finally looks comfortable with his full complement of weapons available, and though I have been bearish on the Bucs this season, I like them in this spot. Tampa Bay was embarrassed the last time it played in prime time and will surely have that in mind entering this game. I waited for this to tick back down to -4 because any higher and you're getting too close for comfort to my -6 projection.

Wow! 4.5 points? These two teams are very evenly matched. The Buccaneers have played two above-average teams, the Saints and Packers. They lost both to New Orleans but manhandled Green Bay. The Rams like to run the ball and play keepaway, plus they have a Top-5 defense. It's true the Rams haven't played a team as balanced as Tampa, but I still think this one will be extremely tight. Take the points.

The Bucs are No. 1 against the run, the Rams are No. 1 against the pass, and both defenses are making great halftime adjustments. Over the past three games, the Rams are giving up an average of 3.3 second-half points, the Bucs 7.3 second-half points. When the Bucs face an elite defense (New Orleans, Chicago), this season, they are averaging 15 points. Go Under.

These are two of the best defenses in the league, with the Bucs ranking first in DVOA and the Rams eighth, though the latter is also fist in points per drive and net yards per pass attempt. The Buccaneers defense also blitzes more than any other, and Jared Goff has struggled when blitzed. Pair that with the Rams run game going up against a Bucs stop unit that has allowed a league-best 3.3 yards per carry, and I don't see much in the way of points from Los Angeles. Tom Brady's offense may have issues as well consistently beating a Rams secondary that has been excellent this year. This one might not be 13-3 like the last Brady-Goff matchup, but expect a similar game.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers face a tall task in this game, as they'll be up against a Rams defense that ranks first in net yards per attempt and points per drive. But a lot of that success has been built against bad teams, with the Rams ranking only eighth in defensive DVOA. You know who's first in that statistic? The Bucs, who dominated the Panthers on the road last week. They blitz more than any team, and Jared Goff struggles mightily against the blitz. That'll keep the Rams point total down, and I think the Bucs offense can do enough against the Rams to get the cover, though you should try to get 3.5 and don't bother playing at more than 4.

Versatile Rams lineman Joseph Noteboom, tasked with replacing injured left tackle Andrew Whitworth, will give up some pressures but I don't think he'll be a turnstile. L.A. came out of its bye refreshed and is well-positioned to not only harass Tom Brady, but to blanket his top weapons. The Bucs have struggled in primetime -- getting blown out by the Saints, losing by one to the Bears and squeaking out a two-point win over the Giants. Grab the points.

The Rams lost left tackle Andrew Whitworth to a knee injury, and that is going to mean extra pressure on Jared Goff. He does not handle it well. Tom Brady has terrific weapons around him. I don't think the Rams can hang with Tampa on the Bucs' home field.