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Understanding Public and Money
Jeff Driskel is 1-7 as an NFL starter, and while he does not have a huge propensity for throwing interceptions, he does get sacked an awful lot. The positive for Driskel is that he has the Lions' pass catchers, but his likely inability to take full advantage of them, combined with Detroit's non-existent run game with the injury to Kerryon Johnson, gives Dallas a lot of momentum to have success in this game. By waiting, I'm getting the worst line of the week, but the Cowboys should have plenty of opportunities for Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott to find the end zone.
Detroit QB Matthew Stafford appears doubtful to play Sunday, and Jeff Driskel represents a major drop in an offense already belabored with an uninspiring ground game. Perhaps playing last Sunday will help Driskel, but he still compromises the Lions’ vertical pass attack. As for Dallas, the trio of QB Dak Prescott (No. 2 in passing yards), RB Ezekiel Elliott (No. 8 in rushing yards) and WR Amari Cooper (No. 3 in receiving yards) has been terrific. These Cowboys are more talented than their 5-4 straight-up record suggests.
Matthew Stafford appears to be less than 50/50 to play this week, and if he sits I don't know how the Lions stay competitive in this game. The one place where Detroit has shined this year is pass offense, but Jeff Driskel lowers the upside there, as he showed last week. Even if Stafford does play, Cowboys rank sixth in yards per attempt and can slow down the pass game. Dallas is the No. 1 offense in terms of DVOA, and when they've won this year, they've won by double digits. Even if it jumps, I like them to cover, as they're 7-1 ATS the last eight times they've been road favorites by six or more.
I'm looking at Dallas as a bounceback team this week. Detroit has a miserable defense against the run, so Ezekiel Elliott will have a big game. And I don't expect Matthew Stafford to play. The Lions' secondary also is in bad shape and they don't have their star running back.
Dallas played well enough to defeat Minnesota last week. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was on fire, hitting targets all over the field - and doing so accurately. Detroit's offense, especially with QB Matthew Stafford's unknown status, doesn't pose enough of a threat to make you think the Lions will pull off the upset.