The thin spread in this game shows that the only advantage oddsmakers truly believe the Panthers have in this game is their time zone. Carolina should bounce back with a healthy Cam Newton in 2019, but if you're asking me to pick against L.A. in Week 1 with all the time in the world to prepare for Newton, Christian McCaffrey and Co., I'm just not going to do it. Todd Gurley is back, Jared Goff has another year of seasoning, and this being under a field goal is too good to pass up, even if it feels a little off.

Last year Jared Goff did not play in the preseason and still put up 33 points against the Raiders in the opener. Cam Newton is coming off shoulder surgery and probably needed a lot more than six passes in the preseason. And by the way he was sacked twice. No Super Bowl hangover this year as the Rams win and cover.

I wish I had jumped on the Panthers when this line was +3, but the uncertainty around Cam Newton's health proscribed caution before going all-in. With a healthy Cam, I think this line should be a pick 'em, so we're getting nice value by getting points here. The Panthers' new-look versatility on defense might cause some problems for the Rams' downgraded interior O-line, and the Carolina run game should put the offense in position to succeed and not let Aaron Donald pin his ears back too much. Think about Panthers on the moneyline or teasing them up through 3 and 7 as well.

The Super Bowl hangover is heavy -- afflicting not the Rams (yet) but the public. Their desultory Super Bowl showing has resulted in soft betting support to win it this time, with odds of 14/1, tied for sixth-best. L.A. was indisputably the best NFC team in 2018, and there was no backtracking in the offseason. With 13 wins, the Rams nearly doubled Carolina’s total (seven). Running back Todd Gurley, who was held out of preseason games, is healthy, and rookie back Darrell Henderson provides a 1-2 punch. The line opened at an unappealing 3 points but has dipped enough to make the Rams an attractive play.

This is one of those games where the immediate concern is a West Coast team playing on the East Coast at 10 am PT. But when the West Coast team is almost 8-points better on a neutral field, there’s less to worry about, especially when the Rams have been preparing for Cam Newton for five months. I’ve got the Rams rated equally with the Patriots and Eagles as my top-3. While I believe the Panthers could surprise this season, I still have concerns about Newton’s shoulder and new throwing motion following surgery. The Rams should be at least -4.5, so laying less than a field goal is attractive.

Everyone knows that Super Bowl losers typically struggle in their ensuing season openers, but my projections show the Rams will be an exception. In my simulations, they're winning by a touchdown and covering 57 percent of the time. This is Sean McVay's third season as head coach. He won his first two season openers by scores of 46-9 (Colts) and 33-13 (Raiders). Take the Rams.