The two words truly important when picking Minnesota here are Dalvin Cook. People seem to forget how electric a playmaker he can be. He's a true difference-maker on the field, especially for an offense that needs that balance. Combine that with the Vikings' solid home field advantage, and that should be enough to put Minnesota over the top to open the season 1-0 ... even if you don't really believe much in Kirk Cousins.

The Vikings are one of the best home teams in the NFL, and should be closer to -6 favorites. The Falcons defense will struggle to stop this Vikings offense led by Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. Lay it.

The Falcons didn’t live up to their high rating last season (5-11 ATS) and didn’t do much in the offseason to suggest a massive turnaround. They went 2-6 ATS on the road, and the Vikings have one of the best traditional home edges, going 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 at home. The spread suggests these two teams are almost equal, but that’s not the case with the game being in Minnesota. Vikings to cover.

The Vikings’ reputation as underappreciated continues. This line suggests that the public regards these teams as fairly even, but only one is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. And there is no wager in the NFL as certain as Minnesota at home, where it has ruled for several seasons while on a 36-16-1 ATS roll. Atlanta failed to cover on four of its last five road trips a year ago and has not claimed an ATS win over the Vikings in the last four clashes.

Dalvin Cook is back and that will make a big difference in the Vikings' offense. And they're playing a defense Kirk Cousins can actually beat. He has good wideouts at his disposal. Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikes have covered four of their five season openers. Minnesota's defense is very good. That unit will control things; Atlanta doesn't travel well. Lay the points.