I think Houston is going to make this a long series and they may very well win Game 2. But this is too many points in a coin-flip game in favor of the team with the two best players on the floor. Don't overthink this.

Stephen Curry had three assists in Game 1 vs. Houston and that's because the Rockets sent, and will continue to send, two defenders at him. Typically, that means an outlet pass from Curry to get out of the trap and then another pass from whoever receives Curry's pass to the shooter or cutter with a 4-on-3 advantage. Curry, in other words, is the one who creates the leverage, but he's not the one who gets credited with the assist. Plus, six assists is a big number in what figures to be a low-scoring game.

The Rockets need somebody to step up alongside Alperen Sengun to provide some offense, and this is a relatively low number for a guy who put up 19 shots in Game 1. Do you really see VanVleet missing 15 shots again? I'm betting on the big-game nerve of VanVleet on a young team in need of some offensive confidence.

Gary Payton II is the natural outlet on so many of Golden State's 4-on-3 advantages after Stephen Curry draws two on the ball. He is a better shooter than he reputation, or frankly numbers, suggest, and he shoots it with confidence. He'll make at least one, especially with the possibility of Brandin Podziemski being out and Payton getting more minutes. But even if Podz plays, I like the over here for Payton.

Unders are cashing nicely in the NBA playoffs (10-3 to date), including Game One of this series on Sunday. That 95-85 Dubs win has prompted the total to drop 9-10 points for Game 2 (now in the 204 range), but it also makes us look at some potential underlying reasons. It looks like these playoffs are being officiated a bit differently; without the bottom-of-the-barrel teams like the Wizards and Jazz and Pelicans and Hornets to worry about, these better teams are mostly taking away the three-point shots from the opposition and turning the clock back to the 1990s. Most of these series have turned into rock fights; modern analytics again mostly disappear in the postseason. Play Warriors-Rockets Under

The zig-zag worked in only one of three chances last night, and we can pick out spots bucking the venerable trend in postseason. Golden State's playoff experience showed on Sunday when the Dubs paced the game to their liking and frustrated the Rockets on the defensive end, taking control in the second quarter as Houston could only score 34 points in the first half. The Warriors are now 22-7 since Jimmy Butler joined the ranks, and a team with this much postseason savvy knows the difference from being up 2-0 in a series as opposed to 1-1. A panicked Houston shot just 39% from the floor in game and a recovery in Game 2 is by no means a sure thing. Play Warriors

Steph Curry is projected for 5.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists which is exactly what he averages on the season (10.4 reb+ast). I also like his higher road average (11.4) than at home (9.5) and his higher 10+ rate (23-14, 62.2%) on the road vs. home (20-15, 57.1%). The line is low because Houston is a great rebounding team and Steph has only averaged 9.4 (3-4 over) vs the Rockets the last 2 seasons. The game total is 203, which is 23 points less than the line was in their April 6 matchup. Our projected 5.4 assists does reflect this fact and while teams could play at a slightly slower pace, this significantly lower total also should mean a lot more missed shots and rebounding opportunities.

After averaging 8.2 rebounds per game this season, Amen Thompson recorded nine rebounds in Game 1 against the Warriors. The Warriors play a lot of small lineups, which has benefited Thompson in previous meetings. Including Game 1, Thompson has now finished with at least eight rebounds in four of six games against the Warriors this season. In what has the potential to be another low-scoring game, Thompson could see a lot of rebounding opportunities.

The moment in Game 1 was too big for the young Rockets team. This is obviously a must-win spot. They will shoot it better in Game 2 at home and roll the Warriors.

Could we be getting a heavy dose of the four bigs look the Rockets dabbled with last game? Does that invite too many three-balls for the Warriors? Do the Rockets have a choice to try to make this a series? They can absolutely dominate the offensive boards and live on second-chance shots and I expect Steven Adams minutes to tick up some here, with or without Alperen Sengun on the hardwood. Do we think Draymond of Quinten Post will keep him from dominating the boards again after grabbing 12 in 20 mins at home in Game 1?