Despite no Jimmy Butler, Erik Spoelstra's Heat reminded that they have real playoff experience on Wednesday at Chicago. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo know all about winning at this time of year. Herro would respond vs the Bulls when pouring in 38 points. Meanwhile, Bam added his customary 12 boards, Defense was also key for Miami, holding the potent Chicago to barely 39% FG shooting at United Center. Atlanta had no answer for Orlando's fourth-quarter surge on Tuesday, and most recent Hawks successes came vs. lower-echelon entries. The last time Atlanta faced Miami on March, 27, the Hawks lost 122-112 to the host Heat, with Herro doing the damage again when scoring 36. Play Heat.

The Heat couldn’t have looked much better in their win over the Bulls on Wednesday. Tyler Herro was locked in, Andrew Wiggins scored 20 points and their defense was stifling, limiting the Bulls to 90 points. During the regular season, the Heat had the ninth-best defensive rating in the league. We saw what a good defensive team can to do the Hawks with the Magic limiting them to 95 points Tuesday. The Heat are the better team and have the better coach, so I’ll take them to win.

DraftKings. I’m back on Davion Mitchell’s points plus assists line. He’s now cleared this in nine of the last ten meaningful games, including a 16-point, 6-assist performance against the Hawks a few weeks ago. His rotation now has him essentially playing the final 17-18 minutes of each half, and he should function as the lead perimeter defender on Trae Young. The Hawks were crushed by quick guards down the stretch, including Cole Anthony’s 32-point performance off the bench on Tuesday.

Tyler Herro is shooting 44.4 percent from deep this month, and I bet him to make at least three 3-pointers in Friday's win-or-go-home game at Atlanta. Herro faced the Hawks four times this season: Three times he buried four 3-pointers, and in the other game he went 0 for 9 from beyond the arc. That horrific shooting performance came, however, on the second night of a road back-to-back. Herro had played 40 minutes the previous night in Milwaukee, then the Heat flew to Atlanta. The Hawks allow opponents to make 37.6 percent of their 3-point tries, third-worst in the NBA. Herro played 37 minutes in the Heat's 109-90 win over the Bulls on Wednesday. Assuming this game is close, he could play 40 minutes.

We buy Erik Spoelstra and Heat coaching staff in spots like this. No fluke they excel in play-in spots. The Heat were a top 5 advanced metrics team over final 15 games (+9.4 net rating) and shut the high-flying Bulls down in Chicago - very similar to the run-and-gun Hawks. They will take away Trae Young and Miami can do work in the paint and behind the arc in a revamped offense. The Hawks are flawed defensively, allowing 118/G in final 15 games (24th in NBA and second-worst among all playoff teams). The Heat's tenacious defensive pressure will be a problem; ATL was bottom 6 in the NBA in points allowed off turnovers over the final 15 games.