DraftKings. With the Kings missing Malik Monk and Jake LaRavia tonight, Trey Lyles should serve as the minutes leader off the bench. When Lyles plays between 20 and 30 minutes this season, he’s cleared this line in 16/23 games. He’ll likely be needed on the floor a bunch against a Mavs team that will run bigger lineups with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively/Daniel Gafford. Lyles has earned the trust of Doug Christie of late, and with an expected shortened rotation, I have Lyles playing 26 minutes tonight.

Injuries and absences have marked both of these sides but at the moment we suggest Sacto is more likely to put something together. Malik Monk is a key contributor currently out, but Doug Christie has Domantas Sabonis in a healthy state, while DeMar DeRozan and deadline add Zach LaVine continue to provide extra firepower. The Kings looked like they meant business while winning the last three of a recent road trip, the last two at Cleveland and Detroit as LaVine (37 vs. Cavs, 43 vs. Pistons) erupted. Meanwhile, Dallas limps into the play-in, losing four of five, all defeats by 15 or more. Anthony Davis should play but is also dealing with a strained abductor. Play Kings.

Hey Mavs...where's your defense? Granted, Anthony Davis has been in and out of the lineup (and he should be in for tonight at Golden 1 Center), but even when he's played, the Dallas' defense has leaked. Across the past six games, the Mavs have allowed 119 ppg. The Mavs also allowed 120 ppg to Sacto in losing each of the three meetings this season, though Davis didn't feature in any of those. Even minus De'Aaron Fox, Doug Christie has the Kings looking dangerous, especially with Domantas Sabonis healthy and deadline add Zach LaVine scoring up a storm lately (a combined 80 in recent back-to-back road wins at Cleveland and Detroit). Play Mavs-Kings Over.

Even with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II starting, Daniel Gafford should get about 20 minutes. That's exactly how many Gafford received in the most recent game in which all three played, last Friday's win over Toronto. With the Kings bringing Jonas Valanciunas off the bench, the Mavs need Gafford to match up. Gafford has cleared this prop total in 18 of his last 19 games. I believe we're getting a discount because Gafford managed only three rebounds in 10 minutes vs. Sacramento on Feb. 10. That was an outlier as Kessler Edwards and Olivier-Maxence Prosper combined to play 60 minutes. Neither will play Wednesday. I'm also fine playing this Over 5.5 at plus money.

This is a large number for Domantas Sabonis who averages 19.1 PPG on the season. I also consider this a difficult matchup against a Dallas team that has a trio of quality frontcourt defenders in Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively Jr. it’s also worth noting Sabonis averages only 16.9 PPG in 11 games he appeared without Malik Monk this season. It’s also going to be a paced down environment with fewer possessions.

I don't buy either team defensively. Getting Anthony Davis back could be huge for the Mavs, but are his legs back? Over the last 15 games, SAC is 24th in D Rating, the lowest of any playoff team, and DAL is 22nd in D Rating in that span. The Kings are allowing 48.8% FG% in the final 15 games (25th) and the Mavs allowed 49% (28th). Dallas is 13-4-1 to the over in the last 18. In the last 10 meetings between these teams, the winning team has scored at least 120+ in 8 of them. Don't trust either team to get stops when it counts. Playoffs do get officiated a little differently but this number is low enough for me to jump on it.