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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Understanding Public and Money
All the attention will be on Luka Doncic tonight but don't forget about Austin Reaves. Reaves has gone over 24.5 points+assists in 13 of his last 16 games. The addition of Luka hasn't hurt Reaves, who is averaging 21.3 points and 4.8 assists since the Lakers stole Doncic from Dallas. In a game that should be played at a faster pace, I like Reaves' recent trend of hitting the over on this total to continue.
Caesar’s. While all eyes will be on Luka Doncic in his anticipated return to Dallas, I’m looking to fade LeBron James on his combined points and assist line. I do fully expect for Doncic to come into this game with a little bit more motivation (or a lot more), and look to stick it to his old team. Playing in a back-to-back, I see James taking a backseat in this one. And it’s not like this is a low line for LBJ as is: he’s stayed under this total in 10 of his last 15 games, and 12 of 19 total games played with both Doncic and Austin Reaves. I’d bet this down to under 30.5 points and assists.
This line has been set surprisingly low when you consider that Reaves has averaged 26.0 points over his last 15 games. In those 15 games, he scored at least 20 points 13 times. This is the second game of a back-to-back set for the Lakers and Reaves has thrived in such situations this season. Excluding one game in which he left early because of injury, Reaves has scored at least 30 points in the second game of each of the Lakers’ last five back-to-back sets. I’ll take this over.
I can't believe the Lakers played Luka Doncic 31 minutes tonight in OKC ahead of his return to Dallas, and it would have been more if not for an ejection, but at least he didn't come close to hitting his point total so we cashed. Do I think Luka has a huge night in Big D? No doubt about it and maybe a triple-double. But he could go for 25/10/10, and we still win this comfortably. If he tops this, kudos. But he might be a little distracted, a blowout is possible and the Lakers have playoffs to think about in the final week of the RS, so I can't see Luka out there 40 minutes. Our model has him at 44.3 PRA.
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