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I’ll fade the Big Frenchman (I propose the nickname “Eiffel Tower”). Why? 1. Back to back and he played 27 min last night (he averages 30). 2. Walker Kessler is a STUD on D.
Sochan is off to a strong start on the boards for the young Spurs, leading the team in minutes played and grabbing 9 boards or more in 3 of the first four games. This is a great match-up for him. The Jazz are shooting just 38.5% from the field; errant shots and rebound opportunities all over the place. The Jazz also bottom 3 in offensive and defensive box outs and Jazz opponents are averaging 50 rebounds/G, 2nd most (it was a big issue last year, too). I project ample opportunities for Sochan and Wemby to eat on the boards.
We played this same number last night, and Victor Wembanyama had just six points. Granted, that was against a stellar defensive team in Oklahoma City, but the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year is averaging only 16.5 PPG and has scored at least 25 one time. It's also the second of a B2B so his minutes might be capped. In three games last year vs. Utah, Wemby averaged 18.7 PPG.
Jeremy Sochan often looked lost last season as the talented 3rd year pro was inexplicably asked to play Point Guard which went about as well as you'd imagine from a 6'8'' forward with a mediocre handle and below average court vision. Sochan looks much more comfortable this season playing his natural position, however he is taking 15 FGAs per game, which I don't think is sustainable. Ultimately I feel this combo line is inflated and he's likely to see his usage and efficiency decrease sooner than later.
I'm seeing some strong under tendencies early on. And this total looks way out of whack to me. Jazz like to play with pace but Spurs can slow it down. Jazz are 3-1 to the under; played a wild game opening night that went over, but all their totals have been between 229.5-234.5 (big!) - and the last 3 have gone under by 20+. Jazz really struggling to score (102 or less in 3 games). Young Spurs have yet to crack 110 points and 2 of their 3 games didn't go over 215. Jazz don't play much D, but don't score much and I don't see San Antonio going crazy enough to get this over a number this high. These two are 5-2 to under.