This young OKC team got its first road game out of its system and it went better than expected. Thery have youth and speed and depth on their side and the Pels look like with BI sagging and Zion injured. Get the sense they feel a loss is inevitable and a slow start might turn this into a total blowout, Back court cant score enough to keep pace with what OKC can mister. I think SGA goes off early to set the tempo and gets to the line a ton

Since game one Trey Murphy has been held in check from behind the arc. A lot of that has been due to the Thunder’s overall great team defense, as the Pelicans have struggled to score the entire series. In a potential close out game look for Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum to put the bulk of the Pelicans offense on their shoulders. Additionally, Murphy has not attempted a single free throw in the series. Take his under on his points.

The Thunder are 3-0 SU and ATS this season in New Orleans. Without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram has been expected to step up, but he’s been averaging 16.3 points without him and has been kept in check by Lu Dort, averaging 16.3 points. The Thunder are one of the best teams in the league defending the perimeter and Oklahoma City, as a whole, is just the better team. The Pelicans have been outscored by 31-points since game one and don’t look as in sync as Oklahoma City.

We're loading up for a big Trey Murphy night. Backs up against the wall and back home, I expect a lot of volume from him tonight. He's played massive minutes in this series and I can't imagine that is going anywhere. Forwards who average around 14-16 points, average 17 points against OKC at home. The potential was there in Game 3, just need a few more shots to fall. I'm adding the assists because as a team, the shooting has no choice but to get better than 85 points. There should be some assists boosts felt across the lineup.

We noted a resurfacing pattern in close-out, and potential close-out, games this weekend elsewhere in the Western Conference, when the Lakers stayed alive vs. the Nuggets, and the Suns didn't vs. the T-wolves. Both of those contests, however, landed comfortably "over" on the weekend, reminiscent of past close-out games, and the Pels are in the same must-win boat tonight. Minus Zion Williamson, 'Nawlins hasn't scored more than 92 points in any of the first three games of this matchup, but OKC retains the capacity to score points in bunches. Facing elimination tonight, expect something of a frenetic effort tonight from the Pels, with the reduced "total" looking reasonable to clear. Play Thunder-Pelicans "Over"

Holmgren has come out shooting from distance in these games and I expect more of the same in Game 4. The Pels C, Jonas Valanciunas, can't guard him on the perimeter and it remains a match-up problem in a series full of them for New Orleans without Zion. Holmgren attempted 6 3s in each of the first two games and went over this, but backed off in the Game 3 blowout. Banging under the rim is still a problem for him at times but I like him to stroke a few from distance to get us paid