I took the under rebounds plus assists on the show….but the numbers are more favorable just playing under assists on this site. Both teams play slow, Bam is not rebounding at the same level and the Nugs are great v opposing bigs

Bam Adebayo is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game this season, but he has grabbed at least 11 rebounds in just one of his last nine games. The last time he took on the Nuggets, he was limited to eight rebounds despite playing 36 minutes. With Nikola Jokic leading the way, the Nuggets have given up the sixth-fewest rebounds per game in the league. I love this under.

This is a big number for Jamal Murray who averages approximately 31.8 PRA. While Murray is capable of going off against any opponent on any given night he has been running extra hot in the RA department and will be playing in a paced down environment in Miami. The Heat should be up for this game and surrender minimal production to opposing PGs. We saw Miami commit a lot of resources to slowing down Murray in last year's finals.

The Heat are disjointed right now and having issues on the boards, allowing two many second-chance shots and easy looks. Joker can cash in there at a time when Bam Adebayo is struggling. Six straight games over this and 7 of the last 9. Heat have been handsy lately - bottom 10 in the NBA in fouls this month. Joker can get to the line to help this go over. Averages 27/G on the road. Joker on road since 1/1: 35, 32, 29, 29, 23, 24, 31, 31, 42, 34, 25, 27, 34. Over in 11 of 13, and within a bucket of it in 13 of 13. Avg in those games: 30.5 PPG. Given Heat's recent woes, this number looks low to me