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I was about to play the Bucks ML and sure glad I didn't as Giannis has just been ruled out -- ah, the NBA. This is the updated FanDuel number. Milwaukee was a 4-point favorite and now is a 1-point dog. Very curious what Damian Lillard's new points prop will be as it was a very low 23.5 earlier today at DK. Maybe flip that now to 32.5. Will definitely look at that.
This line is inflated because of last Milwaukee/Cleveland matchup. Donovan Mitchell finished with a 49 PRA. But, the under is 41-12, 77.4% at home and 7-2 since Darius Garland has been out. Cleveland has barely shot 50% from 2-point range the last two games and shot 35% or less from deep. Mitchell also has not crashed the boards recently, with three or fewer rebounds in the last five games.
The Cleveland Cavs have won five consecutive games and are one of the hottest teams in the NBA despite missing numerous key starters. They've been playing excellent defense in the process and their opponents are averaging just 99.8 points over that five game sample. One area they have been especially tough has been their defense against opposing forwards. Khris Middleton has been playing good basketball but has struggled against top 10 defenses which the Cavs are. I like Cleveland to slow this game down and limit Middleton in the process.
The Bucks used a 40-21 edge in the third quarter and some uncommonly cold 3-point shooting (just 6 for 43...sheesh!) by the Cavs to win by 8 here at the Rocket on December 29. Cleveland, however, enters this rather-quick rematch off of five straight wins and Donovan Mitchell (39.5 ppg last two) on a heater even by his high standards. Milwaukee still winning games but not because of its defense, which has been de-emphasized by new HC Adrian Griffin, likely not a plus to the Bucks' long term prospects. Play Cavs
Milwaukee keeps putting on an offensive show, but it might be tougher in Cleveland against a Cavs team ranked fifth in defensive efficiency. The Cavs have won five straight, covering four of those. During the win streak, Cleveland has clamped down defensively, holding opponents to 101.6 points per 100 possessions -- almost five points better than the second-best defense in that span. Jarrett Allen has recorded nine straight double-doubles, averaging 18.8 points and 15.1 rebounds in that span. Look for another Donovan Mitchell eruption as the Cavs take this one to the wire.