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The Greek Freak is not fun to play against, but when you get a number this high against a disciplined team that does well against him I’m willing. Especially considering this number is OVER his average. It will be a sweat but let’s roll under.
Scheduling-wise, this looks a tougher spot for the Celtics, off of an OT war vs. the T-wolves last night, as opposed to the Bucks, who have been off since Monday (and a loss at home, no less, to the Jazz). But Milwaukee's season-long aversion to defense (a byproduct of new HC Adrian Griffin being less inclined to emphasize the stop end than predecessor Mike Budenholzer) can bite the Bucks, who have lost four of five. Dame Lillard also likely to return tonight after a brief absence, but the defensive edge rests with Boston, which at least makes a conscious effort on the stop-end.Jayson Tatum's 45 points last night reminds that the Celtics have enough firepower to match Giannis & Co. Play Celtics
Damian Lillard and Cameron Payne are back for the Bucks, who have a big rest advantage in this matchup. Boston traveled and is playing for the fifth time in seven nights, after Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White all played 40-plus minutes in Wednesday's overtime win over Minnesota. Kristaps Porzingis returns, but Al Horford likely will sit. Milwaukee has been stewing since a home loss to Utah on Monday and should capitalize on this scheduling spot.
There is a great chance we are looking at a potential preview of the Eastern Conference finals as two teams that are very familiar with each other square off. This is a big combo line even for perennial MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis averages 48.8 PRA and is facing a Boston defense that is ranked 4th in total defense. I also believe Boston guards Giannis as well as any team in the league and have the ability to make things difficult for the superstar. While Giannis is capable of erupting regardless of the opponent, I believe this combo line is a few ticks too high and is a +EV play over a large sample.
Obviously I would never play this if I thought the Celtics were at full strength. And I might be wrong here, but I'll be stunned if they don't rest at least a few key guys after Wednesday's OT win over Minnesota plus travel. Al Horford never plays both ends of a B2B, so go ahead and rule him out. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White played 43 minutes each, Jayson Tatum 42 and Jrue Holiday 40. I always think it's WEAK that NBA guys getting millions of dollars to play a game can't manage to suit up twice in 24 hours -- Michael Jordan certainly never rested -- but this one I sorta get it. Can't risk injury. Again, Joe Mazzulla might surprise us.