I'm looking forward to seeing Paul Skenes pitch back in his hometown tonight and definitely want to have a play ... and yeah this is high. But obviously if he throws five innings of one-run ball, we win. Seems reasonable. I don't think +1.5 should be offered is really what this is.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has recorded at least nine strikeouts in three of his last four starts, twice reaching double digits, and maintains a swinging strike rate near 14%. He’s pitched at least six innings in three straight games, consistently throwing 90+ pitches and reaching 100 two starts in a row. Yamamoto has allowed just three earned runs in five starts, with none over his last three, helping him pitch deeper into games. His splitter, with a whiff rate over 50% and a Stuff+ of 107, is a dominant weapon and Pittsburgh's lineup has struggled against splitters, making this a favorable matchup for him to use that put away pitch. At +120 for eight strikeouts, there’s value in backing the Dodgers' ace to rack up Ks tonight.

It's a big number, but my projections have this number closer to 8, so getting the plus money odds makes it well worth it. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has struck out at least eight hitters in three of his five starts, and the Pirates offense ranks 21st in K%.

We back Yamamoto, especially in the perfect climes of Chavez Ravine and especially against weak lineups like this. I'm not really concerned with what the Pirates end up doing with their starting pitcher. The Dodgers are locked in and on a tear. They are 7-5 at home on the run line and just getting heated up.