The Rays lineup can't be worse than a year ago and Morel has some sick splits vs. Kyle Freeland with 2 HRs in 6 career ABs. Morel was a lost cause a year ago, but the Rays know what they're doing and when they identify a bat - like Isaac Paredes who they dealt to get Morel - they are generally right. Morel had an .893 OPS vs lefties in 2023 and could back to that this season. I'm buying youngsters like Junior Caminero hitting in front of him and Josh Lowe batting behind him. He could do damage here and Rockies bullpen has major issues, too.

The over is typically a solid bet when the Rockies are playing at Coors Field, but I love it in this spot too. This game will be played at George R. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa -- a park where the dimensions closely resemble Yankee Stadium (318 feet to the left field fence, 314 feet to right field). Colorado starter Kyle Freeland has been excellent at times in his career, but it has been several years since he's been consistently dominant. I expect this game to have double-digit run total.

Tampa Bay's Yandy Diaz is a fine player but not really sure why set at O/U 1.5 hits instead of 0.5. Spring stats definitely aren't everything, but he hit only .225 in Grapefruit League play and is 0-for-2 career off Colorado starter Kyle Freeland. I will probably play Under 1.5 hits on almost everyone this season (maybe not Bobby Witt, Luis Arraez, couple of others) if priced semi-reasonably. If you are new to the site, what I like about O/U 1.5 hits is that it engages me in the first inning (rare to find a guy low in the lineup at 1.5). If my dude doesn't get a hit in the first, the probability of cashing skyrockets.

Any moneyline plays above -140, I recommend playing said home favorite to not bat in the bottom of the ninth. It's essentially -1 and am hoping we get that option soon. Being a former Tampa resident, I think the Rays getting out of that mausoleum that is Tropicana Field for a season is the best possible thing for this franchise. Now they will have an actual HF advantage at the Yankees' spring home in the heart of Tampa -- where the Rays should be playing anyways. Colorado might be the worst franchise in the four major American sports leagues right now. At least the White Sox have a stacked farm system. Believe the Rox just paid a $6.5 million bonus to sign Sidd Finch.

Will be interested to see how the Rays adjust to their new surroundings, but overall I expect a more consistent product than a year ago. Ryan Pepiot, with another offseason in their pitching incubator, has star potential and the Rockies are an inept team with a lineup that was fairly punchless on the road a year ago. They were 29th in OPS on the road last season (.639 - yuck), and also have some serious bullpen questions as well.

I almost want to bet against every starter with a 6.5 K line, as seven strikeouts in your first start of the year is a big task for anyone. Ryan Pepiot is in that group and he was thrust into this spot as Opening Day starter just a few days ago, after Shane McClanahan was unfortunately injured. Pepiot said he got up to 90 pitches this spring, with 72 pitches (four innings) being his in-game max, so he should be rather prepared for the workload, but it's tough to be confident anyone gets deep into their first official start. Not a bad strikeout matchup but I think this should be at 5.5 or at least the odds shaded to the under. (1/2 unit)