Both teams have been hitting well. However, St. Louis has only won two of its last six games. The Cubs are hitting .303 with a .881 OPS over their last seven days. St. Louis hits lefties well at home but the Cubs have won five its last six games Justin Steele has started. St. Louis has only won two of its last 10 games Miles Mikolas has started.

Both the Cubs and Cardinals have been playing great baseball. The Cubs have won four consecutive games and 7 of 10, while Saint Louis has won 10 of their previous 15 outings. The Cardinals bats have been really impressive and since July 1st have been the best offense in the MLB according to a lot of metrics. They look completely different than the team that struggled over the first half of the season. I'll take the home team.

Excellent hitting conditions tonight in St. Louis, with temperatures at or above 100 degrees and winds blowing out. The air density index in the mid-50s makes this one of the strongest hitting environments of the MLB season outside of games in Colorado. The Cubs should be all over the sinking (.398 xWOBA) and 4-seam (.334 xwOBA) fastballs from Miles Mikolas, who really lacks the strikeout upside needed to get out of jams in these conditions. This should be competitive with plenty of run-scoring. I'm on the Over.

Picking against Justin Steele doesn't feel good, but it's hard not to do it when we're getting this phenomenal price -- and my model has the Cardinals covering in a whopping 77% of its simulations. Steele also saw the Cardinals in his last start, meaning his stuff should still be fresh in the St. Louis hitters' minds. With how much reward is baked in here, this is an easy pick.

The Cubs players seem to be rallying around the hope that the group will stay together and can make a playoff run. They've won five in a row and seven of eight. Then again, maybe it's the weak competition? If it is indeed the latter, the Cubs are playing the Cardinals again after taking three of four from them last weekend. Justin Steele is 3-0 in his three starts against the Cardinals this year with a 2.95 ERA. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has been mediocre this year and the Cubs battered him for five runs on 11 hits in five innings last time out. I'm taking the better team with the better pitching matchup at even money.