The Yanks likely have a bit of a starting pitching edge here with Domingo German over Tanner Houck -- they met Saturday and NYY won 3-1; no way this will be that low scoring -- but I easily favor Boston's lineup at home. The Yanks, obviously without Aaron Judge (Yankees have scored three or fewer runs in six of eight games he has missed in latest IL stint), were hoping to get Harrison Bader back from the IL tonight but not yet. Out of the lineup are DJ LeMahieu, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jose Trevino. As we saw with his steal home vs. the Mets, IKF can do damage on the basepaths. All of the Boston regulars are in.

The Yankees are an enigma even when Aaron Judge is healthy. And now? Good luck trying to parse this team. That all being said, my model *does* have them covering in 73% of its simulations. For as much of a slow-motion car crash New York is, Boston's already flown clear of the guardrail. I like what my model's selling.

The Yankees rank last in OPS (.637) over the last 15 days, while the Red Sox rank 19th (.706). Boston got a much-needed boost Wednesday when it scored five runs in the seventh to beat Colorado 6-3. Red Sox starter Tanner Houck has fared well against current Yankees like Gleyber Torres (2 for 14), DJ LeMahieu (0 for 11), Josh Donaldson (1 for 10) and Giancarlo Stanton (2 for 10). Domingo German has shined at home but is less consistent on the road with a 4.20 ERA. Back Boston, which won two of three at Yankee Stadium last weekend, to win the opener.

The Yankees and Red Sox face each other Friday in a rematch from last Saturday, when New York won 3-1. It's a difficult task for any starting pitcher to beat the same team twice in less than seven days. I like to focus on a pitcher’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rather than the traditional ERA when handicapping baseball. Domingo German's ERA is 3.49, however his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) for this season is 4.38. In contrast, Tanner Houck has an ERA of 5.23, while his FIP stands at 4.30, suggesting he has been a bit unlucky this season. Houck has a higher ground-ball rate of 50.3%, compared to German's 39.3% this season. I like the Red Sox in this spot!