The Royals haven’t broken four runs in seven straight games and their median over that stretch is two. They are weak at home versus right-handed pitching. Unless you think the Reds will get to six or seven runs, the Under is the play.

For the second consecutive night the Kansas City Royals lost to the Cincinnati Reds, 5-4. They flirted with a potential comeback down 5 to 1, but were unable to finish the job. Now they have lost eight straight games and are the worst team in MLB. Today, look for their bats to pickup where they left off yesterday as Ben Lively has given up five home runs over his last two starts. Take Kansas City.

It seems like all of us are on the same side here. Each expert has their angle for why this is a great pick. Mine is simply the value of -110 according the SportslineAI. -110 is an implied probability of 52% and SportslinAI has Cincinnati's winning probability at 56%, a 4% edge.

Kansas City’s Daniel Lynch has three starts this season. Lynch has faced one above-average lineup, the Orioles, and has allowed a combined eight runs in 16.1 innings this season. He now faces a Cincinnati lineup hitting .258 with a .713 OPS against lefties on the road this season. The Reds Ben Lively comes off his worst start of the season, seven earned runs at St. Louis, but has a favorable match-up against the Royals, who are hitting .226 with a .698 OPS at home against righties.

This is almost becoming disrespectful to the Reds. The Royals have the worst overall record and the worst home record in the MLB. The Royals have lost eight straight games while the Reds have won four straight and seven of their last nine. Royals starter Daniel Lynch is 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA this season. The Reds should be able to score enough runs to easily win this game. Take the red-hot Reds to win their fifth straight game.

The Royals have lost eight games in a row, while the Reds have won four straight. The Royals continue to struggle to produce at the plate, leaving them tied for the second-fewest runs scored in baseball. The Reds have a much more dangerous lineup that has helped them scored the 10th-most runs. Expect their bats to remain hot against Daniel Lynch, who has a 1.47 WHIP this season and a 1.58 WHIP for his career.