Iowa had a couple of players opt out for the transfer portal and one running back Kaleb Johnson decided to turn pro. They've got their quarterback back in Brendon Sullivan but it's not the quarterback that Iowa started the season with, Cade McNamara. Missouri's got quarterback Brady Cook is healthy after having a high ankle sprain against Alabama. Missouri's top receiver Luther Burden III is preparing for the NFL draft and then they've got a couple more that are out due to injury. Both teams were two and three in away games. But Missouri went 9-3 and 8-4 against the spread and 7-0 at home. I was surprised with Iowa 9-3 to the over. Missouri is the play.

Both teams are missing some key parts. Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson, the Big Ten rushing leader, and Missouri WR Luther Burden are both headed to the NFL and expected to be high draft picks. But a stout Iowa defense that is allowing just 17.1 ppg (No. 9 nationally) should be the difference.

Iowa lost its best offensive player by far to an opt out in All-American running back Kaleb Johnson and because Johnson was so good, Iowa only averaged 13.5 pass attempts per game in November. Missouri lost All-American WR Luther Burden, but four-year starting QB Brady Cook is playing in his finale and will be plenty motivated to finish as a winner. Iowa has lost its past eight games against ranked foes.

Iowa can ill afford to be minus key weaponry but star RB Kaleb Johnson (1537 YR and 23 TDs) is skipping this Music City Bowl. Already minus QB Cade McNamara, backup Brendan Sullivan has been cleared to perform after missing the reg season finale vs Nebraska. Mind, Iowa QBs tossed only 9 TD passes all season. Mizzou is also minus homerun wideout Luther Burden but QB Brady Cook is going to make his fourth bowl start and has a 26-13 career mark. Too often the past couple of years we have seen Iowa's offense not be able to keep pace, and remember how the Tigers physically handled a better Big Ten rep (Ohio State) in the Cotton Bowl last year. Play Missouri (Music City Bowl)

Last season, Missouri defeated Ohio State 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl, which we had as an easy winner. Remember how many players were out for the Buckeyes, including their quarterback Kyle McCord and first-round pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.? I don’t think this Missouri team is as talented, and it’s a little bit of a letdown spot playing against Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost 35-0 in last year’s Citrus Bowl, so you know they are highly motivated in this one. Both teams have key opt-outs which are accounted for in the line. A strong system for years in Bowl games is to “play on” teams as underdogs if they lost their previous Bowl game by 30 or more. Grab the points.