I really like what Marcel Reed has added to the Texas A&M offense, but this comes down to one thing for me: Texas has allowed 20+ points only one time this season. I expect the Horns' defense to shine again on Saturday night.

This is a rivalry that should be on the college football calendar EVERY year. Texas has taken some heat for its strength of schedule, but this team is every bit as good as its record indicates. The Longhorns can win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Quinn Ewers is battle tested. I think Texas A&M got caught looking ahead to this matchup and it cost them against Auburn. A&M has home field advantage and that will play a role. In the end, I see Texas winning by a touchdown and officially stamping its ticket to the College Football Playoff.

Texas is getting knocked in CFP chatter about its unusually modest schedule for an SEC team. Fact is, nine of the Longhorns' 10 victories have occurred by double digits, so they have handled (almost) everything in front of them. The defense of late has been two cuts above the Aggies'. The spread was tamped down over the uncertainty surrounding Texas QB Quinn Evers (ankle), who reportedly will give it a try. The Longhorns would be comfortable gong to backup Arch Manning, who would provide more mobility against a defense that has yet to contain QBs on the move.

I've been saying this for years: This long-awaited rematch will have the most hostile road environment in the history of college football. There will be 110,000-plus fans, most of whom have been waiting to get revenge since the Longhorns won the last game of the series, in 2011. Texas has played its best on the road the last two seasons, but this will be a different animal. Also, as Georgia showed, the way to beat the Longhorns is to get pressure on QB Quinn Ewers, and Texas A&M has the NFL talent on the defensive line to do that. I considered taking the 5.5 points, but I expect this to be a coin-flip game, and I'll take +185 on a coin flip anytime. Two units.

It's fun to see this rivalry back in college football. The Aggies are a different team defensively at home vs. on the road, as they're allowing 15 points per game at Kyle Field vs. 33 PPG in true road games. Only two teams this season have scored more than 17 against the Longhorns, which adds more fuel to my under logic. I expect this to be a one possession game throughout with Texas getting the much needed road victory. Texas 21, Texas A&M 17.