In my eyes, the only reason this spread isn't at least a field goal higher is the rivalry factor. Florida coach Billy Napier is coaching for his job, and the Gators have been playing much better football over the last month. That said, Georgia is in another class. The Bulldogs showed what they are capable of in their 30-15 win over Texas, and they've had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. I expect another strong performance from Kirby Smart's team, and a blowout win for the Bulldogs on Saturday.

Georgia is 6-1 but are only 2-5 against the spread. Florida comes in with some renewed enthusiasm as they have won three of their last four covering all four of their games. Georgia has been waiting for a challenge and somewhat dismissing their opponents during the year and not covering. Georgia had two weeks off since they beat Texas 30-15 convincingly. Carson Beck threw three interceptions in the Texas game but Georgia still dominated. Beck has eight interceptions in his last four games and the thinking is if he limited them to one or zero then Georgia would really be unstoppable. Georgia has won by 22 or more the last 3 years and will do something similar Saturday. Georgia covers.

Rivalries like this with an annual spot in the calendar for both teams make it easier to back trends, and the recent history provides some very strong data pointing in Georgia's direction. The favorite has covered in 7 of the last 8 meetings and the last 10 meetings have all been decided by double digits. This game has great tradition around the stadium but on the field it's rarely been competitive, and I could see Georgia continuing that trend with a tone-setting win coming out of the off week.

In three of the last four meetings of this rivalry played annually in Jacksonville, the winner has scored 42+ and the loser has scored 20+ points. I believe Georgia will win and score more than 30 points as they have in all but one game this season. But the Bulldogs are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. unranked opponents and Florida is riding a four game winning streak against the spread. A backdoor cover by the Gators should give us our over line with ease. Georgia 38, Florida 23.

The Bulldogs dominated Texas 30-15 despite an uneven offensive performance that saw QB Carson Beck throw 3 INTs. Even so, beating a previously undefeated and top-ranked Texas team on the road should propel Georgia toward a strong final stretch run. Florida is coming off its first win against Kentucky in 4 years but, with injuries forcing freshman DJ Lagway to step in at QB, this is a tall task for the uneven Gators.