Was only interested if this dipped under 7 -- which I wasn't sure it would do. Arizona was stellar as a dog in 2023, but K-State might be the most talented team in the Big 12 led by Heisman Trophy candidate QB Avery Johnson and RB DJ Giddens, who has an FBS-best six straight 100-yard rush games. Arizona is allowing nearly 150 yards per game on the ground through two games and hasn't played anyone yet. I will have more on this in the premium newsletter that goes out shortly. You can sign up at https://www.sportsline.com/newsletters/sportsline-daily/

I'll pay a little extra for the hook here, as I like Arizona's chances of winning this outright. Kansas State's offense looks a little clunky, and defensively the Wildcats haven't been as impressive as expected.

Before you read any further: I'm an Arizona alum, diehard fan, and season ticket holder. I had a pretty good beat on my Wildcats last year but have plenty of reservations after what I saw in the first two games of 2024. Last week they were dealing with key injuries and clearly running a scaled down playbook in advance of this game. As I see it, Kansas State is just giving away too many points against a team who was undefeated ATS as an underdog in 2023. Kansas State 31, Arizona 28.

Both of these teams went over the total in their only game against FBS competition so far, and the makeup is there for this to be another. Not only do we have two of the best quarterback in the Big 12 with Noah Fifita and Avery Johnson, but defenses that have been gashed for explosive plays early in the year.

Arizona should be getting 6. We cross several key numbers and let’s take the 8.5