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Oddsmakers first posted a total of 27.5, likely figuring anything lower would be driven up by Over wagering. Amazingly, it has plummeted three points to the most minuscule figure in FBS ever by a substantial margin. No doubt Under backers of Hawkeyes games who have collected all year are looking for one last hit in the regular season and have pounded the Under. Every data point cries out for a low score, but defenses and special teams can produce points, too, directly or indirectly. This is a close-your-eyes pick rooted in the simple fact that games ending 14-10 and 17-7 are rare.
The lowest total ever in college football, sign me up for the under. Iowa has hit the under in six straight games with some of the lowest totals ever. They've also hit the under in five straight road games. The Cornhuskers offense is terrible. The weather is a mess in Lincoln. Expect a disgusting offensive output by both teams. Bet the Under and watch something else.
Nebraska is coming off three tough losses in a row and Iowa has won three in a row, but believe it or not, I'm more impressed with Nebraska's streak of losses than Iowa's streak of wins. Nebraska is desperate for a win to become eligible and they exhibited that desperation against Maryland and Wisconsin over the last two weeks. I expect them to be highly motivated in front of their home crowd. If Nebraska can simply limit their turnovers, they'll win this game at home.
I mean, the better team is getting 3 points. Yeah, Iowa might be looking ahead to the Big Ten title game but still. There isn't an amount of realistic money to where I'd watch this (or most Big Ten games right now) with a stupid total of 24.5 -- and I can't even justify playing an Over. Really can't believe I just typed that an FBS game has a total of 24.5. The West Coast teams can't get to this conference soon enough.
In what world should Nebraska be favored against Iowa? Nebraska leads the entire world in turnovers and is going against a defense that's greatest strength is forcing you into making dumb mistakes. Yes, Iowa's offense stinks, but how often has that mattered?
I feel like the neighborhood dog chasing a car here but OUT OF PRINCIPLE the Over has to be taken. Ok that is out of the way, now for the actual game, Iowa really has nothing to gain here. I'm not saying they just lay down, you know Ferentz isn't having that, but I do believe Nebraska could find a few extra points. Not to mention Nebraska turns the ball over like crazy, Iowa could find some points themselves.