It's odd to describe an unbeaten team as being in a slight slump, but the Huskies' lone cover over the past six outings came against fading USC. Projected rain and stiff winds would impact their offense than than the run-leaning Beavers'. Under coach Jonathan Smith, O-State has fallen just once at home straight-up in the past three seasons. While the Huskies are motivated by a possible berth in the CFB playoffs, the host side has its own powerful incentive. U-Wash is one of the main culprits in the Pac-12 breakup. Smith can paint them as villains in motivating his players.

Although this has the potential to be another wild Pac-12 shootout, the preferred game script for the home-standing Beavers will be one that starts with their power-based run game that is averaging nearly 200 yards to limit possessions for the powerful Huskies. Moreover, Oregon State's stout defense is allowing less than 21 points per game. There could be some explosive offensive plays but the backdrop is set for this one to go Under the posted total.

After throwing the ball over 62% of the time in their first eight games, Washington has been running the ball 57% of the time in their last two. I expect it will continue against an Oregon State team that isn't great against the run. Both teams will keep the clock churning.

The Corvallis magic is real. Seriously, just look at the numbers. Oregon State is 16-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. Incredible. That said, Washington has everything, and I mean everything, to play for. The CFB Playoff. The Heisman Trophy. A National Championship. Washington faced a scare last week against Utah and they won't let that happen again. I respect everything about Oregon State but this is business, both for us and Washington.

Oregon State's path to victory involves a lot of running the football with Damien Martinez and limiting the number of possessions Washington quarterback Michael Penix gets against the Beavers defense. Martinez leads the Pac-12 with 1,024 rushing yards so it's not like Oregon State will be getting out of their comfort zone leaning on the ground game.

Last year's game between Oregon State and Washington was intense. Oregon State initially took the lead, but Washington made a comeback and won the game with a field goal in the last eight seconds. QB Michael Penix Jr. had to complete 52 passes to accumulate 298 yards due to Oregon State's defense. Washington's defense is struggling, ranking 122nd against the pass and 67th in yards per play. In contrast, Oregon State is a top-20 scoring offense and ranks 16th in yards per play. QB DJ Uiagalelei brings big-game experience from his time at Clemson. Rain is expected during the game, which should benefit the Beavers, who own the better offensive and defensive lines. I like the home team!

The Beavers have been fantastic at home since 2021, having won 16 of 17 games outright and also against the spread. Washington has been trending in the wrong direction of late as their play hasn't been as sharp as it was during the first half of the season. This feels like a prime setup for a Beavers win in likely their final conference home game. Oregon State 30, Washington 24.

Faith in the Huskies has been dwindling in a big way, but they’ll get some of that good mojo back this week. Their defense has been a problem, but there’s nothing wrong with how QB Michael Penix Jr, WR Rome Odunze and the rest of the offense is playing. The Beavers defense won’t be able to slow them down enough to get the home win.